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Objective:To describe the epidemiological features and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Methods:Data on colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai was obtained through Shanghai Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System.Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent change(APC)and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the association between age,period and birth cohort and colorectal cancer. Results:A total of 105 847 cases and 60 447 deaths of colorectal cancer were diagnosed in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period.Both the number of new cases and the number of deaths showed an increasing trend.In the same period,the age-standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in urban areas of Shanghai increased significantly from 14.1/100 000 in 1973 to 27.7/100 000 in 2017,while the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 8.2/100 000 to 10.7/100 000.The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 20.4/100 000 and 11.0/100 000,respectively.With the increase of age,the age-standardized morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer showed an obvious upward trend.Taking 1993-1997 as reference,the risk of colorectal cancer in Shanghai reached the highest in 2013-2017,and the corresponding relative risk was 1.2(95%confidence interval:1.2-1.3),while the lowest was 0.9(95%confidence interval:0.8-1.0)during 1973-1977.Mortality risk,on the contrary,decreased with the increase of time.Before 1953-1957,the risk of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai increased with the increase of birth cohort time,and then showed a downward trend.There was a corresponding decline in the risk of colorectal cancer death among people born after 1957. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Shanghai showed an increasing trend from 1973 to 2017,but the prevalence trend of colorectal cancer is still different among different populations.
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OBJECTIVE@#This study aimed to examine the trends in stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults in China.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from the China national vital registration system. Significant changes in mortality were assessed by Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to explain the reasons for the changes. Future mortality and counts were predicted by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model.@*RESULTS@#Between 2002 and 2019, a total of 6,253,951 stroke mortality in young and middle-aged adults were recorded. The age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) of women showed a downward trend. The annual percent changes (APC) were -3.5% (-5.2%, -1.7%) for urban women and -2.8% (-3.7%, -1.9%) for rural women. By contrast, the AAMRs per 100,000 for rural men aged 25-44 years continued to rise from 9.40 to 15.46. The AAMRS for urban men aged 25-44 years and urban and rural men aged 45-64 years did not change significantly. Between 2020 and 2030, the projected stroke deaths are 1,423,584 in men and 401,712 in women.@*CONCLUSION@#Significant sex and age disparities in the trends of stroke mortality among young and middle-aged adults were identified in China. Targeted health policy measures are needed to address the burden of stroke in the young generation, especially for rural men, with a focus on the prevention and management of high risk factors.
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Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Adulto , Humanos , Feminino , Teorema de Bayes , População Urbana , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , China/epidemiologia , MortalidadeRESUMO
Objective:To analyze the epidemiological trends and major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The descriptive epidemiological method was conducted. The overall incidence rate, mortality rate, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Database. Age-standardized rates were calculated based on the worldwide standardized population structure provided by GBD Database 2019. Observation indicators: (1) incidence and motality of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea in 2019; (2) age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019; (3) trends of ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019; (4) trends of major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. Count data were represented as absolute numbers, percentages and ratios. Joinpoint V.4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC), the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in different time periods and 95% confidence interval (95% CI). The age-period-cohort model in STATA V.15.0 software was used to analyze the influence of different ages, periods and birth cohorts on the risk of onset and death of pancreatic cancer after controlling the other two variables, with the risk effect size described as relative risk (95% CI). Results:(1) Incidence and motality of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea in 2019. In 2019, the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 0.07/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 64.01/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.09/100,000 to 94.71/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 47.47/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 0.04/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 79.58/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.05/100,000 to 116.50/100,000 in males and from 0.03/100,000 to 59.69/100,000 in females. The incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in Japan increased from 0.03/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 162.26/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.03/100,000 to 177.67/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 153.67/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in Japan increased from 0.02/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 154.88/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.02/100,000 to 170.93/100,000 in males and from 0.02/100,000 to 145.94/100,000 in females. The incidence rate of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased from 0.04/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 136.78/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.03/100,000 to 153.78/100,000 in males and from 0.04/100,000 to 129.73/100,000 in females. The mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased from 0.02/100,000 among 15-19 years old to 135.98/100,000 among 85-89 years old, with increasing from 0.02/100,000 to 156.21/100,000 in males and from 0.02/100,000 to 127.59/100,000 in females. The peak incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer in China were found in males aged 65-69 years, and the overall incidence and mortality of males in different age groups were higher than those of females in the same age group. In Japan, the peak incidence of pancreatic cancer occurred in females aged 80-84 years and the peak mortality occurred in males aged 75-79 years. The morbidity and mortality of males aged <80 years were higher than those of females in the same age group, while the morbidity and mortality of males aged ≥80 years were lower than those of females in the same age group. In South Korea, the peak incidence of pancreatic cancer occurred in females aged 80-84 years, and the peak mortality occurred in males aged 70-74 years. The morbidity and mortality of males aged <75 years were higher than those of females in the same age group, while the morbidity and mortality of males aged ≥75 years were lower than those of females in the same age group. (2) Age-period-cohort model analysis of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. Age effect: after adjustment for the period and cohort effects, the risk of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in both males and females of China, Japan and South Korea increased with age, which is more obvious in females than males, and more obvious in Japanese than Chinese and Korean populations. Period effect: after adjustment for age and cohort effects, the risk of incidence and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer in both males and females of China, Japan and South Korea increased from 1990 to 2019, with the period effect more significant in the Chinese population. Cohort effect: after adjustment for age and period effects, the risk of morbidity and mortality rates of pancreatic cancer decreased with the passage of birth cohort in China, Japan and South Korea. (3) Trends of ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in China increased yearly from 1990 to 2019, and the ASIR and ASMR in 2019 were 1.82 times and 1.79 times those in 1990, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in Japan showed a slowly increasing trend, and the ASIR and ASMR in 2019 were 1.09 times and 1.05 times those in 1990, respectively. The ASIR and ASMR of pancreatic cancer in South Korea increased firstly, then decreased, and slowly increased. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in China was 2.08% (95% CI as 1.91% to 2.24%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 2.02% (95% CI as 1.86% to 2.19%, P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in Japan was 0.28% (95% CI as 0.15% to 0.42%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 0.13% (95% CI as 0.03% to 0.24%, P<0.05). The AAPC of ASIR of pancreatic cancer in South Korea was 0.50% (95% CI as 0.21% to 0.80%, P<0.05) and AAPC of ASMR was 0.15% (95% CI as -0.10% to 0.40%, P>0.05). (4) Trends of major risk attribution of pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019. The main risk factors for pancreatic cancer related death in China, Japan and South Korea from 1990 to 2019 were smoking, high fasting glucose and high body mass index (BMI). The trend of pancreatic cancer related death, mainly attributed to smoking, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 31.4% in 1990 to 34.1% in 2000, then decreased to 31.1% in 2015, and then showed a slow increase to 31.7% in 2019. The proportion of Chinese females increased from 6.7% in 1990 to 10.4% in 2005 and then dropped to 8.7% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males decreased from 38.8% in 1990 to 26.9% in 2019 and the proportion of Japanese females decreased from 20.9% in 1990 to 14.8% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males decreased from 37.5% in 1990 to 30.3% in 2019 and the proportion of South Korean females decreased from 12.6% in 1990 to 10.0% in 2019. The trend of pancreatic cancer related death proportion, mainly attributed to high fasting blood glucose, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 5.9% in 1990 to 7.1% in 2019 and the propor-tion of Chinese females increased from 6.2% in 1990 to 6.8% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males increased from 7.0% in 1990 to 7.7% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 5.0% in 1990 to 5.5% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males increased from 6.8% in 1990 to 9.7% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 6.1% in 1990 to 8.2% in 2019. The trend of pancreatic cancer related deaths proportion, attributed mainly to high BMI, showed that the proportion of Chinese males increased from 1.3% in 1990 to 3.0% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 2.1% in 1990 to 4.3% in 2019. The proportion of Japanese males increased from 2.0% in 1990 to 2.4% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 3.1% in 1990 to 3.4% in 2019. The proportion of South Korean males increased from 1.9% in 1990 to 3.1% in 2019 and the proportion of females increased from 3.4% in 1990 to 4.3% in 2019. Conclusions:The incidence of pancreatic cancer in China may continue to rise but to be stable in Japan and South Korea. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in females, especially elderly women, needs more attention. Smoking remains the most critical risk factor for pancreatic cancer. More attention should also be paid to the increased risk of pancreatic cancer associated with high BMI and high fasting plasma glucose.
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Objective@#To examine increases in average height among Chinese children and adolescents.@*Methods@#The data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey conducted during the period 1989-2015. A stratified multistage cluster sampling method was utilized to select participants aged 2-22 years in each province. Linear regression was used to examine the effects of age, birth cohort, and survey period on height.@*Results@#A total of 15,227 males and 13,737 females were included in the final analysis. Age (A) showed a continuous effect on height. The average heights of the investigated groups increased continuously during the investigation period. By 2015, the average height of the overall group increased by 7.87 cm compared to the average height during the 1989 survey. Moreover, birth year (cohort, C) also had a stable effect on height. Using the height of individuals born in or before 1975 as a reference, the average height of each birth cohort increased in comparison to the previous birth cohort.@*Conclusions@#The height of Chinese children and adolescents was affected by age, period, and cohort effects, and this effect is governed by certain rules. The age-period-cohort model can be used to analyze the trends of children's and adolescent's heights. The findings provide a scientific basis for the formulation of children's and adolescents' growth and development policies in China.
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Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Adulto Jovem , Desenvolvimento do Adolescente , Saúde do Adolescente , Fatores Etários , Estatura , Desenvolvimento Infantil , Saúde da Criança , China , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Modelos Lineares , Fatores SexuaisRESUMO
PURPOSE: This study investigated the association between health status and tooth loss based on data from the National Health Insurance Service-Health Examinee Cohort in 2002–2015. METHODS: Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were applied to a longitudinal retrospective database, which was updated and newly released in 2018, to assess the association between health status and tooth loss while adjusting for potential confounders among sociodemographic and economic factors (sex, age, household income, insurance, and presence of disability), general and oral health status (body mass index [BMI], smoking and drinking status, periodic dental visits and scaling, and brushing before sleep), and comorbid disease (hypertension, diabetes mellitus [DM], and Charlson comorbidity index [CCI]). RESULTS: Among 514,866 participants from a South Korean population, 234,247 (45.5%) participants satisfying the inclusion criteria were analyzed. In the adjusted multivariate analysis, sex, age, household income, insurance, presence of disability, BMI, smoking and drinking status, periodic scaling, tooth brushing before sleep, DM, and CCI showed statistically significant associations with the loss of at least 1 tooth. The risk of experiencing a loss of ≥4 teeth was associated with an increase in age (in those 50–59 years of age: hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.93–2.03; in those 60–69 years of age: HR, 2.93; 95% CI, 2.85–3.02; and in those 70–79 years of age: HR, 2.93; 95%, CI 2.81–3.05), smoking (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.65–1.73), and DM (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.38–1.48). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that the risk of experiencing tooth loss was related to multiple determinants. DM and smoking were especially significantly associated with tooth loss.
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Adulto , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Cárie Dentária , Diabetes Mellitus , Ingestão de Líquidos , Características da Família , Seguro , Análise Multivariada , Programas Nacionais de Saúde , Saúde Bucal , Doenças Periodontais , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fumaça , Fumar , Extração Dentária , Perda de Dente , DenteRESUMO
BACKGROUND: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. METHODS: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. RESULTS: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show ‘healthy ageing’ phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of −1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%–1.80% in healthcare expenditure. CONCLUSION: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, ‘healthy ageing effect’ suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.
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Efeito de Coortes , Estudos de Coortes , Atenção à Saúde , Previsões , Gastos em Saúde , Coreia (Geográfico) , Expectativa de Vida , Métodos , Parto , Dinâmica Populacional , Mudança SocialRESUMO
PURPOSE: This study was conducted to describe the trends and age-period-cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer in Korea. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer among ≥ 20-year-old women from 1993 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Statistical Information Service. Age-standardized rates were calculated and Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the trends in the incidence and mortality rate. Age-period-cohort analysis was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, period and cohort. RESULTS: The incidence of cervical cancer decreased from 32.8 per 100,000 in 1993 to 15.9 per 100,000 in 2012 (annual percent change [APC], –3.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], –4.2% to –3.6%). The mortality rate decreased from 5.2 per 100,000 in 1993 to 2.1 per 100,000 in 2012 (APC, –4.8%; 95% CI, –5.1% to –4.4%); however, the incidence and mortality rates among young women (< 30 years old) increased. An age-period-cohort model of the incidence and mortality rate showed decreasing period effects between 1993 and 2008 and decreasing cohort effects between 1928 and 1973, while birth cohorts after 1973 exhibited slight increases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer. CONCLUSION: Recent decreases in the incidence and mortality rate of cervical cancer were due to decreases in the period and cohort effects, which reflect the implementation of a cancer screening program and changes in lifestyle. However, our findings also highlighted an increase in cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rate among young women born after 1973.
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Feminino , Humanos , Adulto Jovem , Efeito de Coortes , Estudos de Coortes , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Incidência , Serviços de Informação , Coreia (Geográfico) , Estilo de Vida , Mortalidade , Parto , Neoplasias do Colo do ÚteroRESUMO
There has been a remarkable decline in the number of Catholics in Brazil over the last few decades, a fact that is attributed to the growth of Pentecostal churches and to an increase in the number of people with no religious affiliation. We analyzed the age, period, and cohort effects associated with religious affiliation in Brazil from 1980 to 2010, applying the Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort and Cross-Classified Random Effects Model. We observed that age effects were significant but low for Catholics and Pentecostals, and were substantial for those with no religious affiliation, with a negative relationship. For these first two religious affiliations, period effects were of greater magnitude with clear trends: negative for Catholics and positive for Pentecostals. Cohort effects were significant for all three affiliations, but magnitudes were lower than the other two effects. We also verified that the likelihood of being a Pentecostal decreased with formal education, and the opposite occurred for persons with no religious affiliation. These effects, however, were smaller for younger cohorts, possibly due to the reduced social selectivity of recent students pursuing higher education and the increase in overall levels of education...
Houve uma marcante redução no número relativo de católicos no Brasil nas últimas décadas, fato que é associado, principalmente, ao crescimento das igrejas pentecostais e neopentecostais, bem como ao aumento no número de pessoas sem filiação religiosa. Foram analisados os efeitos de idade, período e coorte associados à filiação religiosa no Brasil entre 1980 e 2010, com o uso do modelo idade-período-coorte hierárquico e modelos de efeitos randômicos com classificação-cruzada. Observaram-se efeitos de idade significativos, mas de pequena magnitude para católicos e pentecostais, e efeitos substanciais para aqueles sem filiação religiosa, sendo essa com uma relação negativa. Para as duas primeiras afiliações, os efeitos de período eram de maior magnitude e com tendências claras: negativa para católicos e positiva para pentecostais. Os efeitos de coorte foram significativos para as três afiliações, mas as magnitudes foram menores do que para dos dois outros efeitos. Também verificou-se que a propensão em ser pentecostal diminui com o nível de educação, sendo que o contrário ocorre para pessoas sem religião. Entretanto, esses efeitos são menos marcantes para coortes mais jovens, possivelmente por causa da natureza menos seletiva da educação superior atualmente no Brasil e do aumento generalizado dos níveis de educação...
Ha ocurrido una notable reducción en el número de católicos en Brasil en las últimas décadas, un hecho que se atribuye al crecimiento de las iglesias pentecostales y un aumento del número de personas sin afiliación religiosa. Analizamos los efectos de edad, período y cohortes asociadas a las afiliaciones religiosas en Brasil desde 1980 hasta 2010, aplicando modelos Jerárquico de Edad-Período-Cohorte y de Efecto Aleatorio de Clasificación Cruzada. Observamos que los efectos de edad fueron significativos pero de baja magnitud para católicos y pentecostales, mientras fueron sustanciales para aquellos sin afiliación religiosa, con una relación negativa. Para las dos primeras afiliaciones religiosas, los efectos de período fueron de mayor magnitud y presentaron tendencias claras: negativas para los católicos y positivas para los pentecostales. Los efectos de cohorte fueron significativos para todas las tres afiliaciones, pero las magnitudes fueron menores que los otros dos efectos. También verificamos que la propensión a ser pentecostal se reduce con la educación formal, y lo opuesto ocurrió con las personas sin afiliación religiosa. Sin embargo, tales efectos fueron menores para cohortes más jóvenes, posiblemente debido a la reducción de la selectividad social de estudiantes recientes en búsqueda de una educación más alta y al aumento general en todos los niveles de educación...
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Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Catolicismo , Censos , Modelos Estatísticos , Protestantismo , Brasil/etnologia , Efeito de Coortes , ReligiãoRESUMO
Hepatitis is a common and serious disease for the Korean population. It is caused by a virus, the A and B types of which are plentiful in Koreans. In this study, we tried to find genetic factors for hepatitis through genome-wide association studies. We took 368 cases and 1,500 controls from Anseong and Ansan cohort data. About 300,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and 20 epidemiological variables were analyzed. We did not find any meaningful significant single nucleotide polymorphisms, but we confirmed the influence of major epidemiological variables on hepatitis.
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Estudos de Coortes , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Hepatite , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo ÚnicoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Focusing on the respiratory function for health effect indices, we conducted a cross-sectional study on workers who did and did not handle toner to compare the longitudinal changes. METHODS: Among 116 individuals who worked for a Japanese business equipment manufacturer and participated in the study, the analysis included 69 male workers who we were able to follow up for 4 years. We categorized the 40 workers engaged in toner-handling work as the exposed group and the 29 workers not engaged in these tasks as the referent group, and compared their respiratory function test results: peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR), vital capacity (VC), predicted vital capacity (%VC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and forced expiratory volume in 1 second as a percent of forced vital capacity (FEV1%). RESULTS: The cross-sectional study of the respiratory function test results at the baseline and at the 5th year showed no statistically significant differences in PEFR, VC, %VC, FEV1, and FEV1% between the exposed and referent workers. Also, respiratory function time-course for 4 years was calculated and compared between the groups. No statistically significant differences were shown. CONCLUSION: Our study does not suggest any toner exposure effects on respiratory function. However, the number of subjects was small in our study; studies of larger populations will be desired in the future.
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Humanos , Masculino , Povo Asiático , Estudos de Coortes , Comércio , Processos de Cópia , Estudos Transversais , Seguimentos , Volume Expiratório Forçado , Pico do Fluxo Expiratório , Testes de Função Respiratória , Capacidade VitalRESUMO
Failure to primary treatment under RNTCP can be an enormous setback for the society. A record based retrospective cohort analysis of 212 patients failing primary treatment under Cat I or Cat III was done in Burdwan district of West Bengal to find the treatment outcome after re-registration under Cat II and its possible influencing factors. Retreatment of failed patients resulted in 24.06% chronicity. Important factors influencing the outcome of being failure were found to be Adolescence (AOR = 2.350; C.I. 0.660-8.281), Urban residence (AOR = 1.878; C.I. 0.705-5.002), primary categorization in Cat I versus Cat III (AOR = 5.036; C.I. 0.897-28.281), higher bacillary load at the beginning of retreatment regimen (AOR = 5.437; C.I. 0.787-37.562) and more than three weeks delay in instituting Cat II treatment (AOR = 3.550; C.I. 0.941- 13.393). 17.35% of such failed patients were still defaulters. Hence such factors may be looked into for more efficient control of Tuberculosis in our country.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the age, period and cohort effects on breast cancer (BC) mortality in Mexico. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Age, period and cohort curvature trends for BC mortality were estimated through the Poisson Regression model proposed by Holford. RESULTS: Nationally, BC death rates have leveled off since 1995 in most age groups. BC mortality trends are mainly determined by birth cohort and age effects in Mexico. Women born between 1940 and 1955 show the highest rate of increase in BC mortality. Women born afterwards still show an increasing trend but at a much lower rate. Mammography and adjuvant therapy have had a limited impact on mortality. Potential reasons for observed patterns are discussed. An increase in BC mortality in Mexico is expected in the following decades. CONCLUSIONS: Mammography screening programs and timely access to effective treatment should be a national priority to reverse the expected increasing BC mortality trend.
OBJETIVO: Evaluar efectos de edad-periodo-cohorte en la mortalidad por cáncer de mama (CaMa) en México. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Las tendencias de los efectos de edad-periodo-cohorte fueron estimados mediante un modelo de regresión de Poisson propuesto por Holford. RESULTADOS: Las tasas de mortalidad por CaMa se han estabilizado en la mayoría de los grupos de edad desde 1995 y están determinadas principalmente por efectos de cohorte y edad. Las mujeres nacidas entre 1940 y 1955 muestran los mayores aumentos en la mortalidad en comparación con las nacidas después de este período. La mamografía y la terapia adyuvante han tenido un impacto limitado sobre la mortalidad. Se discuten posibles explicaciones de las tendencias observadas. En las siguientes décadas se espera continúe aumentando la mortalidad por CaMa. CONCLUSIONES: El acceso a mamografía y a tratamiento oportuno y efectivo debieran ser una prioridad para revertir la tendencia creciente esperada de la mortalidad por CM.
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Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Distribuição por Idade , Estudos de Coortes , México/epidemiologiaRESUMO
JUSTIFICATIVA E OBJETIVOS: Estudos de coorte são úteis na identificação de fatores de risco e prognósticos, no acompanhamento da história natural de certas doenças e no estudo do impacto de intervenções diagnósticas e terapêuticas. O objetivo deste estudo foi subsidiar o leitor na avaliação crítica de artigos que lançaram mão deste tipo de delineamento de pesquisa. CONTEÚDO: Na avaliação dos estudos de coorte, é crítico observar a existência de vieses de seleção e informação, a continuidade do seguimento dos sujeitos de pesquisa, o controle dos fatores de confusão, a importância dos resultados e sua aplicabilidade na prática clínica. CONCLUSÕES: O conhecimento dos fatores que afetam a qualidade dos estudos de coorte permite ao intensivista selecionar as melhores evidências para auxílio na tomada de decisões clínicas.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Cohort studies are useful to identify risk and prognostic factors, assess disease natural history and verify the impact of diagnostic or therapeutic interventions. This article aims to guide readers on how to critically assess papers using a cohort research design. CONTENTS: For a critical appraisal of cohort studies, one must observe: the existence of selection and information bias, the continuity of the follow-up, the control of confounding variables, the significance of the results and its applicability in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of factors which affect the quality of cohort studies allows intensive care professionals to select the best available evidence to guide the decision making process.
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Estudos de Coortes , Medicina Baseada em Evidências/métodosRESUMO
Prevalence of age-dependent diseases such as asthma is confounded not only by aging effects but also by cohort and period effects. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is commonly performed to isolate the effects of these three factors from two-way tables of prevalence by age and birth cohort. However, APC analysis suffers from technical difficulties such as non-identifiability problems. We isolated the effects of these three factors in a step-by-step manner by analyzing Japan's school health data collected from 1984 to 2004 focusing on asthma prevalence among school children aged 6-17 years consisting of 30 birth cohorts (entering classes). We verified the accuracy of our method showing high agreement of the observed age-, period- and cohort-specific data and the data predicted by our method. The aging effects were found to follow cubic equations whose multinomial coefficients were determined by an optimization technique. The obtained aging effect curves of age-specific asthma prevalence showed that boys reach the peak prevalence at 13 and girls at 14, declining markedly afterward. The cohort effects, defined as the arithmetic asthma prevalence means for ages 6-17 years, showed consistent upward trends for the 30 birth cohorts born in 1968-97 for both sexes. The period effects showed a consistent decline since 1984 but abruptly increased in 1999 and then declined again. We were not able to identify the exact cause of the increase in 1999, therefore, this should be examined in the future studies. Because the cohort effects show no sign of leveling off yet, asthma prevalence will likely increase in the foreseeable future.
RESUMO
Prevalence of age-dependent diseases such as asthma is confounded not only by aging effects but also by cohort and period effects. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis is commonly performed to isolate the effects of these three factors from two-way tables of prevalence by age and birth cohort. However, APC analysis suffers from technical difficulties such as non-identifiability problems. We isolated the effects of these three factors in a step-by-step manner by analyzing Japan’s school health data collected from 1984 to 2004 focusing on asthma prevalence among school children aged 6–17 years consisting of 30 birth cohorts (entering classes). We verified the accuracy of our method showing high agreement of the observed age-, period- and cohort-specific data and the data predicted by our method. The aging effects were found to follow cubic equations whose multinomial coefficients were determined by an optimization technique. The obtained aging effect curves of age-specific asthma prevalence showed that boys reach the peak prevalence at 13 and girls at 14, declining markedly afterward. The cohort effects, defined as the arithmetic asthma prevalence means for ages 6–17 years, showed consistent upward trends for the 30 birth cohorts born in 1968–97 for both sexes. The period effects showed a consistent decline since 1984 but abruptly increased in 1999 and then declined again. We were not able to identify the exact cause of the increase in 1999, therefore, this should be examined in the future studies. Because the cohort effects show no sign of leveling off yet, asthma prevalence will likely increase in the foreseeable future.