Variáveis Clínicas e Laboratoriais na Admissão Hospitalar são Preditores de Fibrilação Atrial Nova em Pacientes Internados com Pneumonia por COVID-19 / Clinical and Laboratory Data Up on Hospital Admission are Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19 Pneumonia

Resumo Fundamento Fibrilação atrial nova (FAN) ocorre em pacientes internados por COVID-19. Há controvérsias quanto ao valor preditivo de dados clínicos e laboratoriais à admissão hospitalar para ocorrência de FAN. Objetivos Analisar, à admissão hospitalar, variáveis com potencial preditivo para ocorrência de FAN em pacientes com pneumonia por COVID-19. Método Estudo observacional, retrospectivo, caso-controle. Foram avaliados prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes consecutivos ≥ 60 anos, hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19 entre 1º de março e 15 de julho de 2020. Comparações feitas pelos testes `t' de Student ou qui-quadrado. Foi empregado modelo de risco proporcional de Cox para identificação de preditores de FAN. Considerou-se o valor de p < 0,05 como estatisticamente significativo. Resultados Entre 667 pacientes internados por COVID-19, 201 (30,1%) foram incluídos. FAN foi documentada em 29 pacientes (14,4%) (grupo 1). Grupo 2 foi composto por 162 pacientes que não apresentaram FAN. Dez pacientes excluídos por estarem em FA na admissão hospitalar. Houve diferenças entre os grupos 1 e 2, respectivamente, no tempo de permanência em UTI (11,1±10,5 dias vs. 4,9±7,5 dias; p=0,004), necessidade de ventilação invasiva (82,9% e 32,7%; p<0,001) e mortalidade hospitalar (75,9% vs. 32,1%; p<0,001). No modelo de Cox, idade > 71 anos (hazard ratio [HR]=6,8; p<0,001), leucometria ≤ 7.720 cels.μL-1 (HR=6,6; p<0,001), natremia ≤ 137 mEq.L-1 (HR=5,0; p=0,001), escore SAPS3 > 55 (HR=5,6; p=0,002) e desorientação (HR=2,5; p=0,04) foram preditores independentes de FAN. Conclusões FAN é uma arritmia comum em idosos hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19. Parâmetros clínicos e laboratoriais avaliados na admissão são preditores de FAN durante internação.

Abstract Background New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. It is still unknown whether clinical and laboratory data assessed upon hospital admission have predictive value for NOAF. Objectives To analyze, upon hospital admission, variables with predictive potential for the occurrence of NOAF in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods Observational, retrospective, case-control study. Electronic medical reports of consecutive patients, 60 years of age or older, hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia between March 1st and July 15th, 2020, were reviewed. Non-paired Student or chi-squared tests compared variables. A Cox proportional hazard model was employed to identify independent predictors of NOAF. P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Among 667 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, 201 (30.1%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. NOAF was documented in 29 patients (14.4%), composing group 1. Group 2 was composed of 162 patients without NOAF. Ten patients were excluded due to the AF rhythm upon hospital admission. In groups 1 and 2, there were differences in overall in-hospital survival rate (24.1 % vs. 67.9%; p<0.001), length of stay in ICU (11.1 ± 10.5 days vs. 4.9 ± 7.5 days; p=0.004) and need for mechanical ventilation rate (82.9% vs. 32.7%; p<0.001). In the Cox model, age > 71 y/o (HR=6.8; p<0.001), total leukocyte count ≤ 7,720 cels.μL-¹ (HR=6.6; p<0.001), serum [Na+] ≤ 137 mEq.L-¹ (HR=5.0; p=0.001), SAPS3 score > 55 (HR=5.6; p=0.002), and disorientation (HR=2.5; p=0.04) on admission were independent predictors of NOAF. Conclusion NOAF is a common arrhythmia in elderly hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory parameters evaluated on admission have a predictive value for the occurrence of NOAF during hospitalization.

Identificación con azul patente de ganglio centinela en cáncer de mama / Patent blue for identification of sentinel nodes in breast cancer

Resumen OBJETIVO: Describir las características sociodemográficas, clínicas y patológicas y los resultados obtenidos con la técnica de ganglio centinela con azul patente en la cirugía de cáncer de mama temprano. Además, reportar la experiencia en la identificación del ganglio centinela en cáncer de mama temprano con la técnica con azul patente al 2.5%. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio retrospectivo y analítico consistente en la evaluación de los expedientes clínicos de pacientes diagnosticadas con cáncer de mama temprano, sin sospecha clínica o radiológica de afectación axilar, atendidas entre junio de 2022 y junio de 2023 en el servicio de Ginecología Oncológica de la UMAE Hospital de Ginecoobstetricia, Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente del IMSS. El sitio de inyección del colorante fue subdérmico periareolar, los ganglios identificados se estudiaron en el transoperatorio. Se analizaron el porcentaje de identificación, las tasas de falsos negativos y el valor predictivo negativo del método. RESULTADOS: Se analizaron 95 procedimientos de biopsia de ganglio centinela. Solo se practicó la linfadenectomía axilar en las pacientes con metástasis en el ganglio centinela comprobada en el estudio transoperatorio y en las que no se identificaron ganglios teñidos por no migración del colorante. La edad promedio de las pacientes fue de 57.1 años límites 25 y 78 años. El tamaño del tumor fue menor a 3 cm. A 64 67% pacientes se les hizo la mastectomía en comparación con 31 a quienes se efectuó cirugía conservadora de mama 33%. Se estadificaron como IA 57 de las 95 pacientes; el subtipo molecular más frecuente fue compatible con luminal A en 49%. CONCLUSIONES: La biopsia del ganglio centinela, con azul patente, es una técnica rápida, sencilla, precisa y de bajo costo para identificar daño axilar en etapas tempranas del cáncer de mama. Lo aquí reportado son resultados que corresponden a una primera evaluación de la técnica en nuestro servicio.

Abstract OBJECTIVE: To describe the sociodemographic, clinical and pathological characteristics and results of the patent blue sentinel lymph node technique in early breast cancer surgery. And to report the experience in identifying the sentinel lymph node in early breast cancer using the 2.5% patent blue technique. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective and analytical study consisting of the evaluation of the clinical records of patients diagnosed with early breast cancer, without clinical or radiological suspicion of axillary involvement, seen between June 2022 and June 2023 at the Oncological Gynaecology Service of the UMAE Hospital de Ginecoobstetricia, Centro Médico Nacional de Occidente of the IMSS. The dye injection site was subdermal periareolar, and the identified lumps were examined in the transoperative period. The percentage of identification, false negative rates and negative predictive value of the method were analysed. RESULTS: Ninety-five sentinel node biopsies were analysed. Axillary lymphadenectomy was performed only in patients with sentinel lymph node metastasis confirmed at surgery and in those in whom no stained nodes were identified due to non-migration of the dye. The mean age of the patients was 57.1 years range 25 to 78 years. The tumour size was less than 3 cm. Sixty-four patients 67% underwent mastectomy, compared with 31 who underwent breast-conserving surgery 33%. Fifty-seven of the 95 patients were staged as AI; the most common molecular subtype was compatible with luminal A in 49%. CONCLUSIONS: Sentinel lymph node biopsy with patent blue is a rapid, simple, accurate and inexpensive technique for identifying axillary disease in early breast cancer. The results reported here represent an initial evaluation of the technique in our service.

Nomgram model for individual prediction of coronary heart disease with pulmonary hypertension / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To establish an individual Nomgram model for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension. Methods From January 2017 to December 2021 , 352 patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) complicated with pulmonary hypertension in our hospital were selected, and 352 patients with coronary heart disease but without pulmonary hypertension were selected as the control group. The clinical baseline data of the two groups were analyzed first, and then logistics multivariate analysis was performed. To explore the risk factors of coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension, the Nomgram model was established to predict the risk, and the predictive value of the model was tested by receiver characteristic curve (ROC). Results Logistics multivariate analysis showed that alcoholism, smoking, stroke history, hypertension course, CHD course, PASP, HCT, PaCO2, D-dimer, NIHSS score and low PaO2 were all independent risk factors for CHD complicated with pulmonary hypertension. Nomgram model prediction results for patients with coronary heart disease showed that Alcohol abuse, smoking, stroke history, duration of hypertension (5.66 years), duration of coronary heart disease (2.12 years), NIHSS (12.33 points), PASP (75.22mmHg), HCT (33.22%), PaCO2 (56.11mmHg), D-dimer (255.12μg/L), PaO2 (56.22mmHg) is a risk factor for coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension. ROC curve showed that the area under the prediction curve of Nomgram model for coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension was 0.675. Conclusion Nomgram model can predict pulmonary hypertension in patients with coronary heart disease to a certain extent.

Alergia a la leche de vaca: ¿se pueden evitar las pruebas de provocación oral? Un análisis probabilístico basado en datos clínicos / Cow's milk allergy: Can oral food challenges be avoided? A probabilistic analysis based on clinical data

Introducción. La prueba de provocación oral (PPO) para el diagnóstico de alergia a las proteínas de la leche de la vaca (APLV) presenta riesgos y requiere de recursos. Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar condiciones y pruebas complementarias para identificar una alta probabilidad de APLV. Población y métodos. Análisis secundario sobre estudio de pacientes atendidos en una unidad de alergia entre 2015 y 2018. Se determinaron las probabilidades prepruebas asociadas a los síntomas y sus combinaciones, y las probabilidades pospruebas luego de realizadas pruebas cutáneas y determinación de inmunoglobulina E (IgE) sérica. Resultados. Se evaluó la información de 239 pacientes. Se observaron probabilidades mayores al 95 % en pacientes con angioedema y combinación de urticaria y vómitos. Usando puntos de corte propuestos por Calvani et al., la combinación de vómitos con rinitis, sin angioedema, también superó el 95 %. Conclusión. Se ofrece una metodología para identificar pacientes en los que puede diagnosticarse APLV sin realización de PPO.

Introduction. The oral food challenge (OFC) for the diagnosis of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) poses risks and requires resources. Our objective was to assess conditions and complementary tests used to identify a high probability of CMPA. Population and methods. Secondary analysis of a study of patients seen at a unit of allergy between 2015 and 2018. Pre-testing probabilities associated with symptoms and their combinations and post-testing probabilities after skin prick testing and serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels were determined. Results. The data from 239 patients were assessed. A probability greater than 95% was observed for angioedema and a combination of urticaria and vomiting. Based on the cut-off points proposed by Calvani et al., the combination of vomiting with rhinitis, without angioedema, also exceeded 95%. Conclusion. A methodology is provided to identify patients in whom CMPA may be diagnosed without an OFC.

Are we ready to stratify BI-RADS 4 lesions observed on magnetic resonance imaging? A real-world noninferiority/equivalence analysis / Estamos prontos para estratificar lesões BI-RADS 4 na ressonância magnética? Uma análise de não inferioridade/equivalência do mundo real

Abstract Objective: To demonstrate that positive predictive values (PPVs) for suspicious (category 4) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings that have been stratified are equivalent to those stipulated in the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) for mammography and ultrasound. Materials and Methods: This retrospective analysis of electronic medical records generated between January 4, 2016 and December 29, 2021 provided 365 patients in which 419 suspicious (BI-RADS category 4) findings were subcategorized as BI-RADS 4A, 4B or 4C. Malignant and nonmalignant outcomes were determined by pathologic analyses, follow-up, or both. For each subcategory, the level 2 PPV (PPV2) was calculated and tested for equivalence/noninferiority against the established benchmarks. Results: Of the 419 findings evaluated, 168 (40.1%) were categorized as malignant and 251 (59.9%) were categorized as nonmalignant. The PPV2 for subcategory 4A was 14.2% (95% CI: 9.3-20.4%), whereas it was 41.2% (95% CI: 32.8-49.9%) for subcategory 4B and 77.2% (95% CI: 68.4-84.5%) for subcategory 4C. Multivariate analysis showed a significantly different cancer yield for each subcategory (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found that stratification of suspicious findings by MRI criteria is feasible, and malignancy probabilities for sub-categories 4B and 4C are equivalent to the values established for the other imaging methods in the BI-RADS. Nevertheless, low suspicion (4A) findings might show slightly higher malignancy rates.

Resumo Objetivo: Demonstrar que os valores preditivos positivos (VPPs) para lesões suspeitas (categoria 4) identificadas por ressonância magnética (RM) são equivalentes aos estipulados no ACR BI-RADS para mamografia e ultrassonografia. Materiais e Métodos: Análise retrospectiva de dados em prontuário eletrônico, entre 4 de janeiro de 2016 e 29 de dezembro de 2021, resultou em 365 pacientes elegíveis, com 419 lesões classificadas como BI-RADS 4A, 4B ou 4C. Desfechos malignos e não malignos foram determinados por estudo patológico e/ou acompanhamento. Realizamos o cálculo do VPP nível 2 (VPP2) para cada subcategoria e testamos para não inferioridade/equivalência em relação aos valores de referência. Resultados: Dos 419 achados, 168 (40,1%) foram malignos e 251 (59,9%), não malignos. O VPP2 para subcategoria 4A foi 14,2% (IC 95%: 9,3-20,4%), para 4B foi 41,2% (IC 95%:, 32,8-49,9%) e para 4C foi 77,2% (IC 95%: 68,4-84,5%). Análise multivariada demonstrou diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as subcategorias (p < 0,001). Conclusão: A estratificação de achados suspeitos por RM é factível, sendo que a probabilidade de malignidade das subcategorias 4B e 4C é equivalente à estabelecida para outros métodos de imagem pelo BI-RADS. Contudo, lesões de baixa suspeição (4A) podem apresentar taxas mais altas de malignidade.

Instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en estado crítico: scoping review / Risk assessment instruments for pressure ulcer in adults in critical situation: a scoping review / Instrumentos para a avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão para adultos em situação crítica: scoping review*

Objetivo: mapear los instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en situación crítica en una unidad de terapia intensiva; identificar los indicadores de desempeño de los instrumentos y la apreciación de los usuarios con respecto al uso/limitaciones de los instrumentos. Método: scoping review. Para redactar el estudio se utilizó la extensión Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews. La investigación se realizó mediante la herramienta de búsqueda EBSCOhost en 8 bases de datos, resultando 1846 estudios, de los cuales 22 conforman la muestra. Resultados: se identificaron dos grandes grupos de instrumentos: los generalistas [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS y Waterlow]; y los específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi y Sanada y el índice COMHON). En cuanto al valor predictivo, EVARUCI y CALCULATE mostraron los mejores resultados de indicadores de desempeño. En cuanto a las apreciaciones/limitaciones señaladas por los usuarios, destaca la escala CALCULATE, seguida de la EVARUCI y la RAPS-ICU, aunque aún necesitan ajustes futuros. Conclusión: el mapeo mostró que las evidencias son suficientes para indicar uno o más instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos críticos en una unidad de cuidados intensivos.

Objective: to map the instruments for risk assessment of pressure ulcers in adults in critical situation in intensive care units; identify performance indicators of the instrument, and the appreciation of users regarding the instruments' use/limitations. Method: a scoping review. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews in the writing of the study. We carried out the searches in the EBSCOhost search tool for 8 databases, resulting in 1846 studies, of which 22 studies compose the sample. Results: we identified two big instrument groups: generalist [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS, and Waterlow]; and specific (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi and Sanada, and COMHON index). Regarding the predictive value, EVARUCI and CALCULATE presented better results for performance indicators. Concerning appreciation/limitations indicated by users, we highlight the CALCULATE scale, followed by EVARUCI and RAPS-ICU, although they still need future adjustments. Conclusion: the mapping of the literature showed that the evidence is sufficient to indicate one or more instruments for the risk assessment of pressure ulcers for adults in critical situation in intensive care units.

Objetivo: mapear os instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos; identificar os indicadores de desempenho dos instrumentos e a apreciação dos utilizadores quanto ao uso/às limitações dos instrumentos. Método: scoping review. O Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews foi utilizado para a redação do estudo. A pesquisa foi realizada na ferramenta de busca EBSCOhost em oito bases de dados, resultando em 1846 estudos, dos quais 22 compõem a amostra. Resultados: identificaram-se dois grandes grupos de instrumentos: os genéricos [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS e Waterlow]; e os específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi e Sanada e o índice de COMHON). Quanto ao valor preditivo, a EVARUCI e a CALCULATE apresentaram os melhores resultados de indicadores de desempenho. Em relação à apreciação/às limitações apontadas pelos utilizadores, destacam-se a escala CALCULATE, seguindo-se da EVARUCI e da RAPS-ICU, embora ainda necessitem de ajustes futuros. Conclusão: o mapeamento mostrou que as evidências são suficientes para indicar um ou mais instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos.

Generación de un test predictivo para el diagnóstico de laetiología de la hemorragia digestiva alta variceal

Nuestro objetivo fue desarrollar un test diagnóstico para predecir la etiología de la Hemorragia Digestiva Alta Variceal (HDAV). Realizamos un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo. Se revisaron historias clínicas de pacientes mayores de 18 años con Hemorragia Digestiva Alta (HDA) que acudieron al servicio de emergencia del Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) de Lima-Perú entre el 2019 a 2022, se recolectaron datos demográficos, de laboratorio y clínicos; posteriormente, se identificaron variables predictivas de HDAV mediante una regresión logística múltiple. A cada variable con capacidad predictiva se les asignó un puntaje con un punto de corte y sirvió para construir una escala predictiva de HDAV. Se incluyeron 197 historias clínicas de pacientes con HDA, de los cuales 127 (64%) tuvieron sangrado de causa no variceal, y, 70 (36%), variceal. Se identificaron 4 factores predictivos independientes: hematemesis (vómito rojo) (OR: 4,192, IC 95%: 1,586-11,082), recuento de plaquetas (OR: 3,786, IC 95%: 1,324-10,826), antecedente de HDA (OR: 2,634, IC 95%: 1,017-6,820), signos de enfermedad hepática crónica (OR: 11,244, IC 95%: 3,067-35,047), con los que se construyó una escala predictiva, con un punto de corte >7 y ≤7; que mostró una sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, cociente de probabilidad positivo, y, negativo de 58,6%, 90,6%, 77,4%, 79,9%, 6,20, y 0,46 respectivamente. En conclusión, la escala predictiva con un punto de corte >7 es útil para predecir la presencia de la HDAV en pacientes que acuden a la emergencia por HDA.

Our objective was to develop a diagnostic test to predict the etiology of Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (VUGIB). We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Medical records of patients over 18 years of age with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (UGIB) who attended the emergency service of Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) in Lima-Peru between 2019 and 2022 were reviewed; demographic, laboratory and clinical data were collected. Subsequently, predictive variables of variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) were identified using multiple logistic regression. Each variable with predictive capacity was assigned a score with a cut-off point and served to build a predictive scale for VUGIB. 197 medical records of patients with UGIB were included, of which 127 (64%) had non-variceal bleeding, and 70 (36%), variceal. Four independent predictors were identified: hematemesis (red vomit) (OR: 4,192, 95% CI: 1.586-11.082), platelet count (OR: 3.786, 95% CI: 1.324-10.826), history of UGIB (OR: 2.634, 95% CI: 1.017-6.820), signs of chronic liver disease (OR: 11.244, 95% CI: 3.067-35.047), with which a predictive scale was constructed, with a cut-off point >7 and ≤7; which showed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative of 58.6%, 90.6%, 77.4%, 79.9%, 6.20, and 0.46 respectively. In conclusion, the predictive scale with a cut-off point >7 is useful for predicting the presence of VUGIB in patients who attend the emergency room for UGIB.

A prospective validation and comparison of three multivariate models for prediction of difficult intubation in adult patients

Abstract Purpose Several bedside clinical tests have been proposed to predict difficult tracheal intubation. Unfortunately, when used alone, these tests show less than ideal prediction performance. Some multivariate tests have been proposed considering that the combination of some criteria could lead to better prediction performance. The goal of our research was to compare three previously described multivariate models in a group of adult patients undergoing general anesthesia. Methods This study included 220 patients scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia. A standardized airway evaluation which included modified Mallampati class (MM), thyromental distance (TMD), mouth opening distance (MOD), head and neck movement (HNM), and jaw protrusion capacity was performed before anesthesia. Multivariate models described by El-Ganzouri et al., Naguib et al., and Langeron et al. were calculated using the airway data. After anesthesia induction, an anesthesiologist performed the laryngoscopic classification and tracheal intubation. The sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the models were calculated. Results The overall incidence of difficult laryngoscopic view (DLV) was 12.7%. The area under curve (AUC) for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models were 0.834, 0.805, and 0.752, respectively, (Langeron > El-Ganzouri, p= 0.004; Langeron = Naguib, p= 0.278; Naguib = El-Ganzouri, p= 0.101). The sensitivities were 85.7%, 67.9%, and 35.7% for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models, respectively. Conclusion The Langeron model had higher overall prediction performance than that of the El-Ganzouri model. Additionally, the Langeron score had higher sensitivity than the Naguib and El-Ganzouri scores, and therefore yielded a lower incidence of false negatives.

Estimación del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos

Fundamento: a pesar de la importancia del cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos y los beneficios de su implementación en la Atención Primaria de Salud, en la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos son insuficientes los estudios sobre su estimación. Objetivo: determinar el riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el año 2021. Métodos: se realizó un estudio descriptivo, transversal y correlacional. La muestra estuvo conformada por 105 hipertensos entre 40-80 años de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el 2021. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, género, colesterol total, tabaquismo, presión arterial sistólica, diabetes mellitus diagnosticada y el riesgo cardiovascular global. Se calcularon la frecuencia absoluta y relativa de las variables y se aplicó la Chi cuadrado de Pearson en la asociación de las variables y el riesgo cardiovascular bajo con un nivel de significación p=0,05. Los resultados se presentaron en tablas. Resultados: predominó el género femenino, el grupo etáreo de 50-69 años, los no diabéticos y los no fumadores, con colesterol normal y prehipertensos. El 93,3 % presentó riesgo cardiovascular global bajo y el 6,7 % de moderado a crítico. Los pacientes no diabéticos y con presión arterial sistólica normal presentaron asociación significativa con el riesgo cardiovascular bajo. Conclusiones: los hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos presentan un riesgo cardiovascular global bajo, se mostró una correlación entre el riesgo cardiovascular bajo y la presión arterial sistólica normal y los antecedentes de no diabetes, lo que condicionaría protección a eventos cardiovasculares y cerebrovasculares en el futuro.

Background: despite the importance of calculating global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients and the benefits of its implementation in Primary Health Care, studies on its estimation are insufficient at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos. Objective: to determine the global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in the year 2021. Methods: a descriptive, cross-sectional and correlational study was carried out. The sample consisted of 105 hypertensive patients between 40-80 years of age from the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in 2021. The variables studied were: age, gender, total cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diagnosed diabetes mellitus, and global cardiovascular risk. The absolute and relative frequency of the variables were calculated and Pearson's Chi square was applied in the association of the variables and low cardiovascular risk with a significance level of p=0.05. The results were presented in tables. Results: the female gender, the age group of 50-69 years, non-diabetics and non-smokers, with normal cholesterol and prehypertensive predominated. 93.3 % presented low overall cardiovascular risk and 6.7 % moderate to critical. Non-diabetic patients with normal systolic blood pressure presented a significant association with low cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos have a low overall cardiovascular risk, a correlation was shown between low cardiovascular risk and normal systolic blood pressure and a history of non-diabetes, which would determine protection against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in the future

Proteína C-reativa como preditor para complicações pós-operatórias em cirurgias colorretais / C-reactive protein as postoperative complications predictor of colorectal surgeries

ABSTRACT Background: The use of inflammatory markers in order to accurate the diagnosis, decrease the reoperation rate and enable earlier interventions during the postoperative period of a colorectal surgery is increasingly necessary, with the purpose of reducing morbimortality, nosocomial infections, costs and time of a readmission. Objective: To analyze C-reactive protein level on the third postoperative day of an elective colorectal surgery and compare the marks between reoperated and non-reoperated patients and to establish a cutoff value to predict or avoid surgical reoperations. Methods: Retrospective study based on the analysis of electronic charts of over 18-year-old patients who underwent an elective colorectal surgery with primary anastomoses during the period from January 2019 to May 2021 by the proctology team of Santa Marcelina Hospital Department of General Surgery with C-reactive protein (CRP) dosage taken on the third postoperative day. Results: We assessed 128 patients with a mean age of 59.22 years old and need of reoperation of 20.3% of patients, half of these due to dehiscence of colorectal anastomosis. Comparing CRP rates on the third postoperative day between non-reoperated and reoperated patients, it was noted that in the former group the average was of 153.8±76.2 mg/dL, whereas in reoperated patients it was 198.7±77.4 mg/dL (P<0.0001) and the best CRP cutoff value to predict or investigate reoperation risk was 184.8 mg/L with an accuracy of 68% and negative predictive value of 87.6%. Conclusion: CRP levels assessed on the third postoperative day of elective colorectal surgery were higher in patients who were reoperated and the cutoff value for intra-abdominal complication of 184.8mg/L presented a high negative predictive value.

RESUMO Contexto: O uso de marcadores sanguíneos para tentar acurar o diagnóstico, reduzir a taxa de readmissão e possibilitar intervenções mais precoces no pós operatório de cirurgia colorretal é cada vez mais necessário, a fim de almejar reduzir a morbimortalidade, infecções nosocomiais, custos e tempo de uma reinternação. Objetivo: Analisar o nível da proteíne C reativa (PCR) no terceiro dia de pós-operatório de cirurgia colorretal eletiva e comparar os valores entre pacientes reoperados e não reoperados e estabelecer um valor de corte para prever ou afastar re-intervenção cirúrgica. Metodos: Estudo retrospectivo através da análise de prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes maiores que 18 anos submetidos a cirurgia colorretal de forma eletiva com anastomoses primárias no período de janeiro de 2019 a maio de 2021 pelo serviço de Coloproctologia do Departamento de Cirurgia Geral do Hospital Santa Marcelina com dosagem da PCR no 3º pós-operatório. Resultados: Foram avaliados 128 pacientes com média de idade de 59,22 anos e necessidade de reoperação em 20,3% dos pacientes, sendo metade desses por deiscência de anastomose colorretal. Ao se comparar os valores de PCR no 3º pós operatório entre os pacientes não reoperados e os reoperados, observou-se que nos primeiros a média foi de 153,8±76,2 mg/dL, enquanto nos pacientes reoperados foi de 198,7±77,4 mg/dL (P<0,0001) e, o melhor valor de corte de PCR para predizer ou investigar o risco de reoperação, foi 184,8 mg/dL com uma acurácia de 68% e valor preditivo negativo de 87,6%. Conclusão: Os níveis de PCR avaliados no 3º pós-operatório de cirurgia colorretal eletiva foram maiores em pacientes reoperados e o valor de corte para complicações intra-abdominal de 184,8 mg/L apresentou elevado valor preditivo negativo.

Validade do autorrelato de hipertensão arterial em trabalhadores / Validity of workers self-reports of hypertension

Resumo Introdução O monitoramento da hipertensão arterial sistêmica (HAS) é realizado no Brasil, fundamentado no autorrelato, por meio do sistema VIGITEL. Tendo em vista lacunas acerca desse agravo em populações de trabalhadores, estas devem ser alvo da ação ampliada para o seu diagnóstico epidemiológico. Objetivo Testar a validade de critério do autorrelato de HAS, comparando-o com medidas aferidas de pressão arterial (PA). Método Realizou-se estudo de corte transversal com amostra aleatória do universo de 1.561 trabalhadores de um serviço judiciário na Bahia. Calcularam-se sensibilidade, especificidade, valores preditivos e razões de probabilidade para o autorrelato de HAS, comparando-os com a aferição direta da PA, medida de referência. O diagnóstico de HAS foi a média de duas aferições com PA sistólica ≥ 140 mmHg, e/ou PA diastólica ≥ 90 mmHg, e/ou uso regular de anti-hipertensivos. Resultados Em amostra de 391 trabalhadores, verificou-se sensibilidade de 66,4% (57,1-74,6%), especificidade de 87,9% (83,2-91,4%), valor preditivo positivo de 70,5% (61,1-78,6%), valor preditivo negativo de 85,7% (80,9-89,4%), razões de probabilidade positiva e negativa de 5,5 (3,88-7,72) e de 0,4 (0,30-0,49), respectivamente. Conclusão Este estudo evidenciou o autorrelato como medida válida para o diagnóstico epidemiológico da HAS entre trabalhadores, recomendando seu uso. No entanto, esta validade depende do diagnóstico prévio do agravo.

Abstract Background Monitoring of hypertension, based on self-report, has been performed in Brazil through VIGITEL. In view of the gaps about this problem in worker populations, these should be the targets of the expanded action of epidemiological diagnosis of hypertension. Objective To test the validity of hypertension self-report in comparison to blood pressure (BP) measurements. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted on a random sample of 1561 workers from a Judicial Service in Bahia. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated for the hypertension self-report in comparison with direct BP measurement (reference). Hypertensive cases presented the mean of two BP measurements, with systolic BP ≥ 140 mmHg, and/or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg and/or regular use of antihypertensive drugs. Results In a sample of 391 workers, there was a sensitivity of 66.4% (57.1-74.6%), a specificity of 87.9% (83.2-91.4%), a positive predictive value of 70.5% (61.1- 78.6%), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (80.9-89.4%), a positive and negative likelihood ratio of 5.5 (3.88-7.72) and 0.4 (0.30-0.49) respectively. Conclusion This study showed self-report as a valid measure to implement the epidemiological diagnosis of hypertension among workers, recommending its use. However, its validity depends on the previous diagnosis.

Sensibilidad y especificidad de las escalas diagnósticas en la apendicitis aguda. Estudio prospectivo / Sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic scales in acute appendicitis. Prospective study

La Apendicitis Aguda se manifiesta cuando existe inflamación del apéndice cecal, representando una de las más notables causas de abdomen agudo con pronóstico quirúrgico en el mundo. Existen sistemas de puntuaciones que se han generado para su comprobación, mediante técnicas no invasivas, de fácil aplicación y reproducción; destacando entre ellas las escalas de ALVARADO, RIPASA, AIR, entre otras. Objetivo: Comparar la sensibilidad y especificidad de las escalas AIR Vs. RIPASA para el diagnóstico de la Apendicitis Aguda en el Hospital General Nacional "Dr. Ángel Larralde", período enero 2020 ­ diciembre 2022. Materiales: Estudio observacional, descriptivo y evaluativo, prospectivo y de corte transversal. Muestra fue intencional no probabilística, cumpliendo con los criterios de inclusión. Para la recolección de datos, se empleó la observación directa como técnica y como instrumentos las escalas AIR y RIPASA. Resultados: Muestra conformada por 192 pacientes, sin predisposición de géneros. Sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo y exactitud diagnóstica AIR: 70%; 58,33%; 73,68%; 53,84%; 65,62%; RIPASA: 88,88%; 42,85%; 66,66%; 75%; 68,75%. Conclusiones: La exactitud diagnóstica para la escala de RIPASA fue ligeramente mayor que para AIR (68,75% vs. 65,62%), permitiendo afirmar que, en el grupo de estudio, resultó más conveniente la aplicación de la escala de RIPASA en pacientes sanos para el diagnóstico correcto de Apendicitis Aguda(AU)

Acute Appendicitis manifests when there is inflammation of the cecal appendix, representing one of the most notable causes of acute abdomen with surgical prognosis in the world. There are scoring systems that have been generated for verification, using non-invasive techniques that are easy to apply and reproduce; highlighting among them the scales of ALVARADO, RIPASA, AIR, among others.Objective : To compare the sensitivity and specificity of the AIR Vs. RIPASA scales for the diagnosis of Acute Appendicitis at the National General Hospital "Dr. Ángel Larralde", period January 2020 ­ December 2022. Materials: Observational, descriptive and evaluative, prospective and cross-sectional study. Sample was intentional, non-probabilistic, meeting the inclusion criteria. For data collection, direct observation was used as a technique and the AIR and RIPASA scales as instruments.Results : Sample made up of 192 patients, with no gender predisposition. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and AIR diagnostic accuracy: 70%; 58.33%; 73.68%; 53.84%; 65.62%; RIPASE: 88.88%; 42.85%; 66.66%; 75%; 68.75%.Conclusions : The diagnostic accuracy for the RIPASA scale was slightly higher than for AIR (68.75% vs. 65.62%), allowing us to affirm that, in the study group, the application of the RIPASA scale was more convenient in healthy patients for the correct diagnosis of Acute Appendicitis(AU)

Non-invasive prenatal testing for the diagnosis of congenital abnormalities: Insights from a large multicenter study in southern China

Although non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) is widely used to detect fetal abnormalities, the results of NIPT vary by population, and data for the screening efficiency of NIPT positive predictive value (PPV) from different populations is limited. Herein, we retrospectively analyzed the NIPT results in a large multicenter study involving 52,855 pregnant women. Depending on gestational age, amniotic fluid or umbilical cord blood was extracted for karyotype and/or chromosome microarray analysis (CMA) in NIPT-positive patients, and the PPV and follow-up data were evaluated to determine its clinical value. Among the 52,855 cases, 754 were NIPT-positive, with a positivity rate of 1.4%. Karyotype analysis and/or CMA confirmed 323 chromosomal abnormalities, with a PPV of 45.1%. PPV for trisomy 21 (T21), trisomy 18 (T18), trisomy 13 (T13), sex chromosomal aneuploidies (SCAs), and copy number variations (CNVs) were 78.9, 35.3, 22.2, 36.9, and 32.9%, respectively. The PPVs for T21, T18, and T13 increased with age, whereas the PPVs for SCAs and CNVs had little correlation with age. The PPV was significantly higher in patients with advanced age and abnormal ultrasound. The NIPT results are affected by population characteristics. NIPT had a high PPV for T21 and a low PPV for T13 and T18, and screening for SCAs and CNVs showed clinical significance in southern China.

Risk factors of red blood cell infusion in very low/ultra-low birth weight neonates with respiratory distress syndrome / 中国输血杂志

【Objective】 To investigate the risk factors of red blood cell transfusion frequency (fRBCT) toward newborns with very/extremely low birth weight (V/ELBW) who experienced 57 days, >2.75 days and >23.75 days. 【Conclusion】 Increased fRBCT may complicate V/ELBW NRDS newborns who experienced <32 weeks of gestational age with NEC, hematosepsis, BPD and ROP. Duration of hospital stay, invasive ventilation and IVN are relatively effective predictive indicators for whether such cases have undergone ≥3 red blood cell transfusions throughout their hospitalization.

Predictive Value of Complete Blood Count and Inflammation Marker on Risk of Recurrence in Children with Henoch-Schönlein Purpura / 中国实验血液学杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the predictive value of complete blood count (CBC) and inflammation marker on the recurrence risk in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP).@*METHODS@#One hundred and thirty-three children with HSP admitted to Cangzhou Central Hospital from February 2017 to March 2019 were enrolled. The clinical data of the children were collected, at the time of admission CBC and C-reactive protein (CRP) were detected. After discharge, the children were followed up for 1 year, the clinical data of children with and without recurrence were compared, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting HSP recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve should be drawn and the predictive value of CBC and CRP on HSP recurrence should be analyzed.@*RESULTS@#In the follow-up of 133 children, 8 cases were lost and 39 cases recurred, with a recurrence rate of 31.20% (39/125). The age, skin rash duration, proportion of renal damage at the initial onset, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of lymphocytes, platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV) and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), MPV/PLT ratio (MPR), and CRP level of patients with recurrence were statistically different from those without recurrence (P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that long skin rash duration, renal damage at the initial onset, increased PLR, high PLT, increased MPV and elevated CRP level were independent risk factors for recurrence in children with HSP (P <0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the combination of the four blood and inflammation marker (PLT, MPV, PLR and CPR) in the early prediction of HSP recurrence was 0.898, which was higher than the initial renal damage (AUC=0.687) and persistent skin rash time (AUC=0.708), with a sensitivity of 84.62% and a specificity of 83.72%.@*CONCLUSION@#Observation of CBC and CPR can predict the risk of HSP recurrence early and guide early clinical intervention.

Comparison of the predictive value of anthropometric indicators for the risk of benign prostatic hyperplasia in southern China / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

This study aimed to compare the predictive value of six selected anthropometric indicators for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Males over 50 years of age who underwent health examinations at the Health Management Center of the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University (Changsha, China) from June to December 2020 were enrolled in this study. The characteristic data were collected, including basic anthropometric indices, lipid parameters, six anthropometric indicators, prostate-specific antigen, and total prostate volume. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for all anthropometric parameters and BPH were calculated using binary logistic regression. To assess the diagnostic capability of each indicator for BPH and identify the appropriate cutoff values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the related areas under the curves (AUCs) were utilized. All six indicators had diagnostic value for BPH (all P ≤ 0.001). The visceral adiposity index (VAI; AUC: 0.797, 95% CI: 0.759-0.834) had the highest AUC and therefore the highest diagnostic value. This was followed by the cardiometabolic index (CMI; AUC: 0.792, 95% CI: 0.753-0.831), lipid accumulation product (LAP; AUC: 0.766, 95% CI: 0.723-0.809), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; AUC: 0.660, 95% CI: 0.609-0.712), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR; AUC: 0.639, 95% CI: 0.587-0.691), and body mass index (BMI; AUC: 0.592, 95% CI: 0.540-0.643). The sensitivity of CMI was the highest (92.1%), and WHtR had the highest specificity of 94.1%. CMI consistently showed the highest OR in the binary logistic regression analysis. BMI, WHtR, WHR, VAI, CMI, and LAP all influence the occurrence of BPH in middle-aged and older men (all P ≤ 0.001), and CMI is the best predictor of BPH.

Correlation between serum uric acid/albumin ratio and large atherosclerosis stroke, its severity and short-term outcome / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the correlation between serum uric acid to albumin ratio (UAR) and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), its severity and short-term outcome.Methods:Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from September 2017 to August 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. They were classified into LAA and non-LAA according to the TOAST etiological criteria. Patients with LAA were further divided into mild stroke group (≤8) and moderate to severe stroke group (>8) according to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, and good outcome group (≤2) and poor outcome group (>2) according to the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between UAR and LAA, its severity and short-term outcome. The predictive value of UAR for poor outcomes in patients with LAA was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 4 178 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled, including 2 751 males (65.8%), aged 61.95±10.73 years. There were 2 000 (47.9%) patients with LAA, including 1 112 (55.6%) mild stroke and 888 (44.4%) moderate to severe stroke; 813 (40.65%) had good short-term outcomes and 1 187 (59.35%) had poor outcomes. UAR in the LAA group was significantly higher than that in the non-LAA group ( P<0.05). In patients with LAA, the UAR of the moderate to severe stroke group and the short-term poor outcome group were significantly higher than that of the mild stroke group and the short-term good outcome group, respectively (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the UAR was an independent risk factor for LAA (odds ratio [ OR] 1.043, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.016-1.071; P=0.002), its severity ( OR 2.000, 95% CI 1.860-2.151; P<0.001), and short-term poor outcomes ( OR 1.456, 95% CI 1.379-1.537; P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was 0.727 (95% CI 0.704-0.750; P<0.001). The optimal cutoff value was 6.62, and the sensitivity and specificity were 86.6% and 56.7%, respectively. The area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was greater than that predicted solely by uric acid and albumin. Conclusions:UAR is associated with LAA, its severity and poor prognosis, and has higher predictive value for poor outcomes in patients with LAA.

Eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio predicts outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke receiving intravenous thrombolysis / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predicting value of eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio (ENR) for outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis in the Department of Neurology, Huai'an First People's Hospital from July 2019 to July 2022 were included retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent correlation between ENR and outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of ENR levels for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. Results:A total of 352 patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis were enrolled, including 240 men (68.1%), age 66.46±12.00 years old. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 8 (interquartile range, 5-13). At 3 months after onset, 215 patients (61.0%) had good outcomes, 137 (38.9%) had poor outcomes. Univariate analysis showed that the median ENR×10 2 level of the poor outcome group was significantly lower than that of the good outcome group ( Z= –7.305, P<0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that lower ENR×10 2 was an independent risk factor for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis (odds ratio 0.619, 95% confidence interval 0.514-0.745; P<0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for ENR×10 2 predicting the poor outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.678-0.784; P<0.01). The optimal cutoff value was 0.625 and the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 94% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion:Lower ENR before intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS is independently associated with the poor outcomes at 3 months.

Predictive score of the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Stroke has become the leading cause of disability and death in China. At present, intravenous thrombolysis is one of the most effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke, but not all patients can benefit from intravenous thrombolysis. In recent years, the exploration of predictive models for the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke has attracted increasing attention. This article systematically reviews the scoring models for predicting the functional outcome, death and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke, with the aim of screening the scoring system suitable for clinical application and providing reference for the clinical diagnosis, evaluation and treatment of acute ischemic stroke.

Combined HAT score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predict symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the value of hemorrhage after thrombolytic (HAT) score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in combination predicting symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Consective patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis with ateplase in Tianjin TEDA Hospital from January 2016 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. sICH was defined as cerebral CT showing hemorrhage at any part of the brain after intravenous thrombolysis, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was increased by≥4 compared with the baseline, or there was a manifestation indicating clinical aggravation. Univariate analysis was used to compare the baseline data of sICH group and non-sICH group. A binary multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent influencing factors of sICH. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of HAT score and NLR in combination predicting sICH. Results:A total of 429 patients with AIS were enrolled. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in atrial fibrillation, systolic blood pressure, NLR, HAT score and NIHSS score between the sICH group and the non-sICH group (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that NLR (odds ratio [ OR] 1.405, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.193-2.958), HAT score ( OR 1.512, 95% CI 1.207-3.169) and NIHSS score ( OR 1.221, 95% CI 1.082-2.634) had significant independent correlation with sICH after adjusting for atrial fibrillation and systolic blood pressure. The ROC curve showed that the areas under the curve of HAT score, NLR and their combination predicting sICH were 0.719 (95% CI 0.609-0.832), 0.723 (95% CI 0.618-0.835) and 0.854 (95% CI 0.765-0.931), respectively. The areas under the curve of the two methods in combination were significantly larger than those of the single method ( P=0.029 and 0.032, respectively), and their sensitivity and specificity were 74.1% and 83.5% respectively. Conclusion:Combined HAT score and NLR is of high value in predicting sICH after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS, and has clinical application potential.