A novel simplified scoring system for predicting mortality in emergency colorectal surgery: prediction model development

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Despite advances in surgical approaches, emergency colorectal surgery has high mortality and morbidity. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create a simple and distinctive scoring system, for predicting mortality among patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prediction model development study based on retrospective data-gathering. METHODS: Patients who underwent emergency colorectal surgery between March 2014 and December 2016 at a single tertiary-level referral center were included in our study. Patient demographics, comorbidities, type of surgery, etiology and laboratory and radiological findings were collected retrospectively and analyzed. A new clinical score (named the Numune emergency colorectal resection score) was constructed from the last logistic regression model, in which one point was assigned for the presence of each predictive factor. RESULTS: 138 patients underwent emergency colorectal surgery. These comprised 64 males (46.4%) and 74 females (53.6%), with a mean age of 64 years. Multivariate analysis revealed that blood urea nitrogen level > 65 mg/dl (odds ratio, OR: 8.03; 95% confidence interval, CI: 2.16-15.77), albumin level < 0.7 ­mg/­dl (OR: 4.43; 95% CI: 1.96-14.39) and American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≥ 3 (OR: 3.47; 95% CI: 0.81-9.18) were associated with postoperative complications. The Numune score was graded from I to III. The risk of mortality was found to be 63.2% in the group with grade III, which accounted for 35.2% of the subjects. There were 37 postoperative deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Surgeons need scoring systems, especially to predict postoperative mortality. We propose the Numune emergency colorectal resection score for emergency surgical procedures as a practical, usable and effective system for predicting postoperative morbidity.

Factores asociados a mal pronóstico en pacientes con sangrado digestivo bajo en un hospital público / Poor outcome factors associated to patients with lower digestive bleeding in a public hospital

Introducción: El sangrado digestivo bajo (SDB) es una entidad cuyas tasas de complicaciones y mortalidad se han incrementado en las últimas décadas. Si bien se han identificado algunos factores relacionados a mal pronóstico, aún quedan variables por evaluar. Objetivo: Identificar factores de mal pronóstico en pacientes que presentaron SDB en el Hospital Nacional Edgardo Rebagliati Martins de Lima, Perú. Materiales y métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional analítico de tipo cohorte retrospectivo. Se realizó un censo de todos los pacientes que presentaron SDB agudo entre enero 2010 y diciembre 2013. Las variables principales a evaluar fueron frecuencia cardiaca ≥100/min, presión arterial sistólica <100 mmHg y hematocrito bajo (≤35%) al ingreso. Se definió mal pronóstico como cualquiera de los siguientes criterios: muerte durante la hospitalización, sangrado que requiera transfusión de ≥4 unidades de sangre, reingreso dentro del primer mes, o necesidad de cirugía de hemostasia. Resultados: Se incluyó un total de 341 pacientes con SDB, de los cuales el 27% tuvo mal pronóstico y 2% fallecieron. Se encontró como variables asociadas a mal pronóstico: frecuencia cardiaca ≥100/min al ingreso (RR: 1,75, IC 95% 1,23-2,50), presión arterial sistólica <100 mmHg al ingreso (RR: 2,18, IC 95% 1,49-3,19), hematocrito ≤35% al ingreso (RR: 1,98, IC 95% 1,23-3,18) y sangrado de origen no determinado (RR: 2,74, IC 95% 1,73-4,36). Conclusiones: Frecuencia cardiaca elevada al ingreso, hipotensión sistólica al ingreso, hematocrito bajo al ingreso y presentar un sangrado en el cual no se encuentra el punto de origen son factores que incrementan el riesgo de presentar mal pronóstico, por lo que se recomienda un monitoreo más estricto en estos pacientes

Background: Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) is an event that has shown an increase in complications and mortality rates in the last decades. Although some factors associated with poor outcome have been identified, there are several yet to be evaluated. Objective: To identify risk factors for poor outcome in patients with LGIB in the Hospital Edgardo Rebagliati Martins of Lima, Peru. Material and methods: A prospective analytic observational cohort study was made, and a census was conducted with all patients with acute LGIB between January 2010 and December 2013. The main variables were heart rate ≥100/min, systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg and low hematocrit (≤35%) at admission. Poor outcome was defined as any of the following: death during hospital stay, bleeding requiring transfusion of ≥4 blood packs, readmission within one month of hospital discharge, or the need for hemostatic surgery. Results: A total of 341 patients with LGIB were included, of which 27% developed poor outcome and 2% died. Variables found to be statistically related to poor outcome were: heart rate ≥ 100/min at admission (RR: 1.75, IC 95% 1.23-2.50), systolic blood pressure <100 mmHg at admission (RR: 2.18, IC 95% 1.49-3.19), hematocrit ≤35% at admission (RR: 1.98, IC 95% 1.23-3.18) and LGIB of unknown origin (RR: 2.74, IC 95% 1.73-4.36). Conclusions: Elevated heart rate at admission, systolic hypotension at admission, low hematocrit at admission and having a LGIB of unknown origin are factors that increase the risk of developing poor outcome, and these patients should be monitored closely due to their higher risk of complications

La operación de Hartmann en hospital público: aún una opción / Hartmann's surgery in a public institution: still an option

ANTECEDENTES: La operación de Hartmann continúa siendo una alternativa válida en el tratamiento de la patología colónica de urgencia. Su atractivo se debe a la aparente simplicidad de su técnica, pero sin embargo. no está exenta de complicaciones, y entre el 20% al 70% de los casos, nunca llega a reconstruirse el tránsito intestinal. Hipótesis: La operación de Hartmann está sobreindicada en pacientes sin repercusión sistémica y con hallazgos quirúrgicos favorables. LUGAR DE APLlCACION: Hospital público de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. DISEÑO: Retrospectivo, observacional. POBLACION: Todos los pacientes a los que se efectuó una operación de Hartmann entre enero del 2000 a marzo del 2009. METODO: Revisión de historias clínicas y de base de datos del servicio. Se utilizó el Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) para clasificar los pacientes según los hallazgos intraoperatorios y la repercusión sistémica. RESULTADOS: 44 pacientes. 24 varones (45%) y 20 mujeres (65%). La edad promedio fue 44 años. 34 (77%1) cirugías de urgencia y 10 (23%) programadas. Según el MPI, 30 pacientes (68%) tuvieron un score = a 21; 12 pacientes (27%) entre 22 y 28 y 2 pacientes (5%) un score mayor a 28. En ocho pacientes (25%) se reconstruyó el tránsito intestinal en un tiempo medio de 284 días La morbilidad fue de 32% y la mortalidad de 27%. CONCLUSIONES: La operación de Hartmann está asociada a una alta morbi-mortalidad. Sólo un 25% de nuestra serie se reconstruyó el tránsito intestinal. Si analizamos a los pacientes según el MPI, el 68% tuvieron un puntaje = 21, por lo que concluimos que la operación de Hartmann está sobreindicada en nuestro medio.

BACKGROUND: Hartmann's procedure is widely used for treatment of acute colonic dísease. It's apparent simplicity is what makes it attractive, however, there are many postoperative complications and Hartmann's reversal is done in 20% to 70%. Hypothesis: Hartmann' s procedure is too often performed in patients without systemic disease and with a favorable surgical outcome. METHODS: Retrospective reviews of all patients who underwent Hartmann's procedure from January 2000 to January 2009. Patients were classified into three groups according to the general status and intraoperative findings using the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI). RESULTS: 44 patients underwent Hartmann's procedure (24 men and 20 women). The mean age was 44 years. Ten out of 44 surgeries were elective. Nineteen patients (43%) had cancer, while 25 patients (57%) had a benign disease. Thirty patients (68%) had an MPI = 21; 12 patients (27%) had an MPI between 22 and 28 (25%), and 2 patients an MPI > 28. Twenty five percent underwent Hartmann' s reversal in a mean period of 284 days (Range 79-419 days). The morbidity was 32% and mortality 27%. CONCLUSION: Hartmann's procedure is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Only 25% underwent Hartmann's reversal. According to the Mannheim Peritonitis Index, 68% had scored less or equal to 21, so we can conclude that Hartmann's procedure is often unnecessarily performed in our Hospital.

The changing survival scenario in gangrenous sigmoid volvulus: a four-decade study.

There is a suspicion that mortality in gangrenous sigmoid volvulus has considerably declined over the recent years. This study was aimed to assess if this is a genuine trend, applicable to the patients, of this study too, and to identify factors responsible for the change, if any. Seventy-eight patients operated for gangrenous sigmoid volvulus, in the last four decades of the just gone century, were analysed. Nine clinical parameters were studied to identify factors responsible for mortality and to see if there was a change in clinical presentation in the later decades. Mortality in the 4 studied decades varied between 15.4% and 65%. Differences were significant (p<0.05) only between the decades of the seventies and eighties and between bunched pre 1980 (48%) and post 1980 (20%) decades. A sea change in survival scene occurred at the end of the decade of the seventies. The change was not accompanied by a concomitant improvement in clinical presentation (p>0.05). Two facts which could explain improved survivals in the post. 1980 period were, the increased recognition of gangrene extending beyond the area of constriction and improved survival after primary anastomoses (p<0.05). These indicated a more accurate assessment of viability and the distance between the cut bowel ends, a stricter selection of cases for primary anastomosis and using Hartmann operation in doubtful situations. Mortality in gangrenous sigmoid volvulus, without knotting in the Indian population has genuinely declined from over 50% in an earlier time to 20% in the later 20 years of the last century, the watershed in the changed scenario being the year 1980.