Estimando el efecto del cambio climático sobre el riesgo de la enfermedad de Chagas en Chile por medio del número reproductivo / Effects of climate change on reproductive number of Chagas disease

ABSTRACT

Background: Reproductive number (R0)-maps estimate risk zones of vector-borne diseases and geographical distribution changes under climate change. Aim: To map R0 aiming to estimate the epidemiological risk of Chagas disease in Chile, its distribution and possible changes due to the global climate change. Material and Methods: We used a relationship between R0 and entomological parameters of vectors as function of environmental variables, to map the risk of Chagas disease in Chile, under current and projected future environmental conditions. Results: We obtained a geographical R0 estimation of Chagas disease in Chile. The highest R0averages correspond to the Central-Northern regions of Chile. T. cruzi transmission area could increase in the future due to climate changes. Independent of the future condition, both for optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios, the area of potential risk for Chagas disease transmission would increase. The estimated R0 values suggest that, if a control of T. infestans is not maintained, Chagas disease endemic status will persist or increase, independently of the climate change scenarios. Conclusions: Mapping R0 values is an effective method to assess the risk of Chagas disease. The eventual increase in the transmission area of the disease is worrisome.