Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holts model
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
53: e20200283, 2020. tab, graf
Article
in English
| SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS
| ID: biblio-1136844
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.METHODS:
We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.RESULTS:
The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.Conclusions:
The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Forecasting
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Year:
2020
Type:
Article
Institution/Affiliation country:
Universidade de São Paulo/BR
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