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Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Aragon, Davi Casale; Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido.
Affiliation
  • Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR
  • Aragon, Davi Casale; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR
  • Nunes, Altacílio Aparecido; Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto. BR
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop ; 53: e20200481, 2020. graf
Article in En | SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS | ID: biblio-1136863
Responsible library: BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract

INTRODUCTION:

Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.

METHODS:

The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.

RESULTS:

The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.

CONCLUSIONS:

Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
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Full text: 1 Index: LILACS Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Pandemics Type of study: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop Journal subject: MEDICINA TROPICAL Year: 2020 Type: Article
Fulltext
Add to My VHL
Print
XML
Search on Google

Full text: 1 Index: LILACS Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Coronavirus / Pandemics Type of study: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop Journal subject: MEDICINA TROPICAL Year: 2020 Type: Article