A long term HIV/AIDS projections for Cameroon

ABSTRACT

Using the data provided by the HIV sentinel surveillance system; since 1989; the HIV prevalence rate among the population sexually active is estimated to vary between 0;8 pour cent and 0;2 pour cent. Taking as hypothesis that Cammeroon is in a preepidemic period; the authors make a long term projections using mathematicals models. Two scenarios are presented. A high scenario which projects the number of HIV infected people to be 220.000 thousand and 14.000 AIDS new cases by the year 2005. A low scenario which projects 140.000 infected persons and 10.000 new AIDS cases by the year 2005