HIV infection in Ethiopian blood donors : prevalence; trends and future projections

ABSTRACT

The study was designed to assess the prevalence and geographic distribution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in Ethiopian blood donors and to evaluate trends as well as make short term predictions on the growth of the epidemic. Donor HIV-1 screening results of six Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS) blood banks; between October 1987 and September 1991; were analyzed. Repeat positivity rates in the Enzyme Linked Immune Sorbent Assay (ELISA) obtained using two different generations of welcozyme test kits were converted to confirmed western blot positivity rates in accordance with test specificities of two generation test kits obtained in low risk population locally. Trend analysis in Addis Ababa donors was made by fitting an appropriate curve to observed prevalence rates; which was used to make short term projections. During the study period; the blood screening component of the AIDS control programme was able to effectively prevent the transfusion of 3291 in HIV-1 infected blood. On the other hand a progressive increment and wide variation in HIV-1 prevalence rates of 0-5.2 per cent in 1988 and 1.6-11.6 per cent in 1991 was obtained. The overall MF sex ratio was 107. The HIV-1 epidemic followed a simple exponential growth curve and the prevalence rate in Addis Ababa donors by the end of 1992 is expected to be 7.9 per cent. These data show that HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopian blood donors are in their exponential growth phase and donor screening mechanisms utilized by our transfusion centers are effective but need to be improved significantly to screen out high risk donors. The establishment of more effective measures for the prevention and control of HIV-1 infection in general and blood safety in particular is recommended