Model stimulation of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Uganda

ABSTRACT

The objectives was to model the HIV/AIDS epidemic among the adult population (15-54 years) in Uganda; taking into account the sexual mixing and variability of infectiousness of an individual infected with HIV. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Uganda is modeled using a computer simulation; based on a mathematical model; over a period of 30 years from the period the virus is anticipated to have been introduced in the population. The model examines transmission via sexual contact; blood transfusion; and intensive surgery. The results showed that HIV prevalence rates are found to be higher for uniform infectivity compared to variable infectivity; as well as for number of new partners based on a distribution compared to mean number of new sex partners. Blood transfusion was responsible for 0.09- 0.30of the HIV infection; while none were obtained from the projections for invasive surgery. It was concluded that use of uniform infectivity as well as use of categorical mean number of new sex partners may over estimate and underestimate the epidemic; respectively. Before blood was screened; it accounted for a small but significant portion of the epidemic