Risk stratification in acute variceal bleeding: Far from an ideal score
Clinics
;
76: e2921, 2021. tab, graf
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1278928
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) results from rupture of esophageal or gastric varices. It is a life-threatening complication of portal hypertension. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how to predict adverse outcomes and identify high-risk patients. In variceal hemorrhage, high Child-Turcotte-Pugh (Child) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores are associated with a worse prognosis. The Rockall system (Rockall), Glasgow-Blatchford (Blatchford), and AIMS65 scores have been validated for risk stratification for nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding; however, their use is controversial in AVB. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of Child, MELD, Rockall, Blatchford, and AIMS65 scores in risk stratification for rebleeding and/or mortality associated with AVB.METHODS:
This retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital over 42 months. The outcomes were 6-week rebleeding and mortality. The AUROC was calculated for each score (1-0.9, 0.9-0.8, and 0.8-0.7, indicating excellent, good, and acceptable predictive power, respectively).RESULTS:
In total, 222 patients were included. Six-week rebleeding and mortality rates were 14% and 18.5%, respectively. No score was useful for discriminating patients at a higher risk of rebleeding. The AUROCs were 0.59, 0.57, 0.61, 0.63, and 0.56 for Rockall, Blatchford, AIMS65, Child, and MELD scores, respectively. Prediction of 6-week mortality based on Rockall (AUROC 0.65), Blatchford (AUROC=0.60), and AIMS65 (AUROC=0.67) scores were also not considered acceptable. The AUROCs for predicting mortality were acceptable for Child and MELD scores (0.72 and 0.74, respectively).CONCLUSION:
Rockall, Blatchford, and AIMS65 scores are not useful for predicting 6-week rebleeding or mortality in patients with AVB. Child and MELD scores can identify patients at higher risk for 6-week mortality but not for 6-week rebleeding.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Esophageal and Gastric Varices
/
End Stage Liver Disease
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Etiology study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Clinics
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2021
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Brazil
Institution/Affiliation country:
UNICAMP)+BR
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