A Total Cost of Operation (TCOp) Analysis of Electric Vehicles Introduction in Urban Transport in La Havana

ABSTRACT

Abstract The urban transport electrification is going upward in many countries. However, this electrification faces many hurdles, among them, the limited range and cost that present-day electric vehicles (EV) have. This paper analyzes which Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) could meet the current car travel needs in different uses. The results from a survey about distance travelled in daily trips in La Havana, allow the assessment of maximum average daily distance travel (MADT) by the private owners, cars in public service, taxis and leasing. The Lognormal distribution adjusts to MADT´s histogram in each group, and yields estimates characterizing its behavior. The use of a database of BEV with more than 60 electric vehicles allows to select an appropriate model for each use. The BEV´s range is normally expressed using several driving cycles, being EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) the most adequate, but the range by EPA is not always available. A regression analysis was made to obtain the EPA range as a function of range by others driving cycles. Finally, a Total Cost of Operation (TCOp) is calculated considering the purchase cost, energy cost, maintenance, etc. The outcomes are that for the private use, only small BEV with a strong subsidy or battery leasing can compete with an Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). In the public, taxis and leasing sector, the BEV are competitive in several years. The daily mileage and electricity cost are decisive. The use of renewable energy to charge batteries can reduce this period to some extent.