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Mathematical modelling approach of the study of Ebola virus disease transmission dynamics in a developing country
Mbah, Godwin Christopher E; Onah, Ifeanyi Sunday; Ahman, Queeneth Ojoma; Collins, Obiora C; Asogwa, Christopher C; Okoye, Chukwud.
  • Mbah, Godwin Christopher E; Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria. Nsukka. NG
  • Onah, Ifeanyi Sunday; Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria. Nsukka. NG
  • Ahman, Queeneth Ojoma; Department of Mathematical Sciences, Confluence University of Science and Technology. Kogi State. NG
  • Collins, Obiora C; Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria. Nsukka. NG
  • Asogwa, Christopher C; Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria. Nsukka. NG
  • Okoye, Chukwud; Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria. Nsukka. NG
Afr. j. infect. dis. (Online) ; 17(1): 10-26, 2023. figures, tables
Article in English | AIM | ID: biblio-1411563
ABSTRACT

Background:

Ebola Virus causes disease both in human and non-human primatesespecially in developing countries. In 2014 during its outbreak, it led to majority of deaths especially in some impoverished area of West Africa and its effect is still witnessed up till date. Materials and

Methods:

We studied the spread of Ebola virus and obtained a system of equations comprising of eighteen equations which completely described the transmission of Ebola Virus ina population where control measures were incorporated and a major source of contacting the disease which is the traditional washing of dead bodies was also incorporated. We investigated the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium using the Jacobian Matrix approach and the disease-endemic stability using the center manifold theorem. We also investigated the global stability of the equilibrium points using the LaSalle's Invariant principle.

Results:

The result showed that the disease-free and endemic equilibrium where both local and globally stable and that the system exhibits a forward bifurcation.

Conclusions:

Numerical simulations were carried out and our graphs show that vaccine and condom use is best for susceptible population, quarantine is best for exposed population, isolation is best for infectious population and proper burial of the diseased dead is the best to avoid further disease spread in the population and have quicker and better recovery.

Subject(s)

Full text: Available Index: AIM (Africa) Main subject: Vaccines / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Models, Theoretical Language: English Journal: Afr. j. infect. dis. (Online) Year: 2023 Type: Article Institution/Affiliation country: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Confluence University of Science and Technology/NG / Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria/NG

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Full text: Available Index: AIM (Africa) Main subject: Vaccines / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Models, Theoretical Language: English Journal: Afr. j. infect. dis. (Online) Year: 2023 Type: Article Institution/Affiliation country: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Confluence University of Science and Technology/NG / Department of Mathematics, University of Nigeria/NG