Shallow aquifer response to climate change scenarios in a small catchment in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone
An. acad. bras. ciênc
;
89(1,supl): 391-406, May. 2017. tab, graf
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-886662
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Water availability restrictions are already a reality in several countries. This issue is likely to worsen due to climate change, predicted for the upcoming decades. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate change on groundwater system in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models (GCM) outputs were used as inputs to a water balance model, which produced recharge estimates for the groundwater model. Recharge was estimated across different land use types considering a control period from 2004 to 2014, and a future period from 2081 to 2099. Major changes in monthly rainfall means are expected to take place in dry seasons. Most of the analysed scenarios predict increase of more than 2 ºC in monthly mean temperatures. Comparing the control and future runs, our results showed a mean recharge change among scenarios that ranged from ~-80 to ~+60%, depending on the land use type. As a result of such decrease in recharge rates, the response given by the groundwater model indicates a lowering of the water table under most scenarios.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
An. acad. bras. ciênc
Journal subject:
Science
Year:
2017
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Brazil
Institution/Affiliation country:
Universidade de São Paulo/BR
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