Climatic variables associated with dengue incidence in a city of the Western Brazilian Amazon region
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
52: e20180429, 2019. tab, graf
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-985154
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue fever in the city of Rio Branco, Brazil.METHODS:
The association between the monthly incidence of dengue fever and climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and the Acre River level was evaluated, using generalized autoregressive moving average models with negative binomial distribution. Multiple no-lag, 1-month lag, and 2-month lag models were tested.RESULTS:
The no-lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was associated with the monthly averages of the Acre River level (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.17), compensated temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.22-1.95), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.68; 95% CI 0.58-0.81). The 1-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the monthly averages of total precipitation (IRR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.39), minimum temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.24-1.91), compensated relative humidity (IRR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.99), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.97). The 2-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the number of days with precipitation (IRR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.06) and maximum temperature (IRR 1.23; 95% CI 1.05-1.44).CONCLUSIONS:
Considering the impact of global climate change on the region, these findings can help to predict trends in dengue fever incidence.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Dengue
Type of study:
Incidence study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Journal subject:
Tropical Medicine
Year:
2019
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Brazil
Institution/Affiliation country:
Universidade Federal do Paraná/BR
/
Universidade de São Paulo/BR
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS