Birth and death rates in Egypt: trends and forecasting

ABSTRACT

The present study was conducted with the aim of determining the trend of crude birth and death rates in Egypt and exploring the population growth in near future using the previous 25 years experience with these two rates. The crude birth and death rates in Egypt for the period 1960 to 1985 were collected. Time series analysis using the least square method for determination of the slop of the best-fit straight line was conducted. The trend and future predictive values of these rates were also calculated. A declining trend of crude birth rate was observed for the period 1960 to 1972, followed by an increasing trend, with almost stability after 1976. For this reason, analysis was conducted using three periods [1960 to 1972, 1972 to 1985, and 1977 to 1985]. The results indicated that, if the declining trend of 1970-1972 was maintained, the rate of natural increase would have reached about 13/1000 in 1985 as compared with an actual rate of 28.4/1000. Moreover, using 1972-1985 and 1977-1985 periods' data for forecasting, the rate of natural increase is expected to be about 30 to 33/1000 for 1990, and 31 to 36 for 1995. This is an alarming situation, and hence family planning activities should be intensified with conduction of population based studies to explore the factors behind the high birth rate