Environmentally sound water resources management in catchment level using DPSIR model and scenario analysis

ABSTRACT

Maharlou-Bakhtegan Catchment in the southern part of Iran is faced with water scarcity. This problem is exacerbated by environmental degradation, climate change effects, mismanagement of water resources, along with a major dependence of water demand supplies on the limited groundwater resources. In this study, a combined approach of DPSIR model along with the scenario analysis was employed to derive the optimal management strategies for the environmentally sound water resources management of Maharlou-Bakhtegan Catchment considering the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. Cause-effect relationships were identified by DPSIR framework and 15 scenarios were developed based on them. For evaluating each scenario, 9 integrated water resources management indicators were introduced and evaluated by MODSIM. The results demonstrated that in scenario Scen-14, restriction for the irrigation area development, as well as other management solutions, which led to 100% supply of domestic and industrial water demands and 91% supply of agricultural water demands. Also in the last scenario the value 1.79 kg/m[3] was received by the Agricultural water productivity indicators. Moreover, by satisfying all IWRM indicators as well as enhancing zero for negative water balance of the aquifers in Scen-14, it is clearly indicated that this scenario revealed more efficient management solutions for the environmentally sound water resources management of the catchment