[Medical demography in Tunisia: current situation and perspectives]

ABSTRACT

Health human resources management is one of the important determinants of health care access equity.To analyse the trend of Tunisian medical density during 2000-2009 and to predict its situation by 2024. Current medical density was calculated using Bar Council of Physicians of Tunisia database. Medical density was calculated and analysed for the period 2000-2009 then modelled by 2024 [estimate of needs and supply]. The active medical density raised by 36% during the period 2000-2009 with a higher increase for specialists. The proportion of non-active physicians rose from 4.6% to 15.2% in 2009. Increasing feminization of medical density and persistence of its regional disparities. By the year 2024, 217 physicians for 100,000 inhabitants would be required while the supply would correspond to 212/100 000 inhabitants. Medical human resources have indeed globally improved. However, some lacks remain and adequate measures are required, based on a rational planning directed to satisfy the population needs and to allow health equity