The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
;
87(3): 429-32, jul.-set. 1992. tab
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: lil-116344
RESUMO
A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Influenza, Human
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Country/Region as subject:
Caribbean
/
Cuba
Language:
English
Journal:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Journal subject:
Tropical Medicine
/
Parasitology
Year:
1992
Type:
Article
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS