Riesgo de embarazo temprano: construcción y validación de un instrumento predictor / Risk in early pregnancy: construction and validation of a predictor instrument

ABSTRACT

An early pregnancy risk scale, with scores ranging from 11 to 66 points from lower to higher risk, was constructed using variables associated with teenagers` pregnancy. This scale was applied to 3000 female teenagers, coming from Metropolitan Santiago public schools. The sample was divided in three risk groups group A (high risk) with scores equal or over 35 points, group B (low risk) with scores equal or below 20 points and a group C (intermediate risk) with scores between 20.1 and 34.9 points. These girls were followed during 2 years. During this period, 84 girls became pregnant, 24 of 184 (13 per cent ) in group A, 60 of 2332 (2.6 per cent ) in group C and none of 307 in group B. There were 104 school desertions in group A and 37 in group B. To study associations and analyze risk, the sample was divided in two risk groups high, with scores over 27 and low, with scores below 27. There was a high association between pregnancy risk score and the occurence of pregnancy (RR 5.25 p<0.0001) and school desertion (RR 3.32 p<0.0001). Pregnancy was predicted with a 78 per cent sensitivity and 56 per cent specificity. The importance variable weighing using multiple regression models, to improve the predictor`s sensitivity and specificity is discussed