El SIDA en México: Tendencias y proyecciones / AIDS in México: Trends and projections

ABSTRACT

As of mid-1988, 1 502 AIDS cases had been reported in Mexic o. The first Mexican AIDS case was reported in 1981, and from then through mid-1987 the incidence of such cases rose rapidly, doubling once about every 7.7 months. Most of the cases (87.6 percent) were sexually transmitted; the malefemale ratio of AIDS patients was 11 to 1; and homosexuals/bisexuals accounted for 85 percent of the adult male cases. Receipt of infected blood or blood products seems to have been responsible for HIV and in roughly two-thirds of the adult females and children (56 pediatric AIDS cases were reported). Heterosexual transmission appears to have accounted for roughly 8 percent of the adult male cases, a third of the adult female cases, and 5 percent of the pediatric cases, while perinatal transmission appears to have been responsible for about 20 percent of the pediatric cases. Overall, only 0.3 percent of the reported cases were attributed to intravenous drug abuse. In general, the disease appears to be spreading from the large cities to peripheral and rural áreas, and to be spreading faster among heterosexuals than among homosexual and bisexual males. Projections bases on continued exponential doubling at the 1983-1986 rate suggests the cumulative AIDS case total could exceed 75 000 by the end of 1991. Recently, the rate of doubling has slowed in México City, where a third of the AIDS cases and 20 percent