Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
;
106(supl.1): 107-113, Aug. 2011. graf, tab
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: lil-597251
ABSTRACT
Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95 percent CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95 percent CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Population Surveillance
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
Malaria
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
/
Screening study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Colombia
Language:
English
Journal:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Journal subject:
Tropical Medicine
/
Parasitology
Year:
2011
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Colombia
Institution/Affiliation country:
Fundación FES Social/CO
/
Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá/CO
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