Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the Andean region of Colombia
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
;
111(7): 433-442, tab, graf
Article
in English
| LILACS
| ID: lil-787554
ABSTRACT
The objective of this research was to identify environmental risk factors for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombia and map high-risk municipalities. The study area was the Colombian Andean region, comprising 715 rural and urban municipalities. We used 10 years of CL surveillance 2000-2009. We used spatial-temporal analysis - conditional autoregressive Poisson random effects modelling - in a Bayesian framework to model the dependence of municipality-level incidence on land use, climate, elevation and population density. Bivariable spatial analysis identified rainforests, forests and secondary vegetation, temperature, and annual precipitation as positively associated with CL incidence. By contrast, livestock agroecosystems and temperature seasonality were negatively associated. Multivariable analysis identified land use - rainforests and agro-livestock - and climate - temperature, rainfall and temperature seasonality - as best predictors of CL. We conclude that climate and land use can be used to identify areas at high risk of CL and that this approach is potentially applicable elsewhere in Latin America.
Full text:
Available
Index:
LILACS (Americas)
Main subject:
Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Colombia
Language:
English
Journal:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Journal subject:
Tropical Medicine
/
Parasitology
Year:
2016
Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Colombia
Institution/Affiliation country:
Centro Internacional de Entrenamiento e Investigaciones Médicas/CO
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