Assessing the Potential Impact and Cost- Effectiveness of Biofortified Provitamin a Maize in Zambia and High Zinc Rice in Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Biofortification is a fast emerging agricultural technology and nutrition strategy for addressing hidden hunger. The impact and cost-effectiveness of biofortified provitamin A maize (VAM) in Zambia and high zinc rice (HZR) in Bangladesh were examined. Methods: In each country, farmers' adoption, production and marketing of the biofortified crops were modeled using empirically-derived estimates of similar varieties. We used the adoption functions to estimate the probability of adoption by farmers using household consumption and expenditure survey (HCES) databases, and, combined with the IFPRI IMPACT model predictions of yearly crop production through 2042, generated annual estimates of the biofortified crop planted and harvested. Using food composition table together with the HCES-reported quantities of foods apparently consumed, we estimated the usual intake of key nutrients and the prevalence of inadequate intakes without biofortified crops. We estimated the additional nutrient intakes as the quantities of biofortified food consumed and its additional nutrient content, and measured changes in the prevalence of inadequate intakes and in the number of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) saved. We combined the DALY estimates with cost data to derive cost-effectiveness measures, annually and over the entire 30-year period. Results: Both interventions were highly cost effective. The cost of HZR was half VAM's $23.70 per DALY saved due to HZR's relatively greater added nutrient content, zinc's greater stability, and HZR's higher adoption rate, which reflects Bangladesh's relatively more developed seed market and value chain. Conclusions: Biofortification is a promising new technology. Its impact will vary by micronutrient, crop and country-specific characteristics.