An Analysis of The Trend of Incidences and Fatality of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in East Java from 2015-2020: A Lesson From COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis is still a public health problem, and surveillance data analysis has not been done much. Recently a global pandemic of COVID-19 has the potential in disturbing TB elimination pro-grams and treatment. This study aims to comprehensively analyse the incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java from 2015–2020 and during COVID-19 and the strategies for optimizing tuberculosis disease control. Methodology: The study analyzed annual surveillance data using an analytical descriptive design. The Varia-bles were analyzed with Spearman correlation with a level of evidence of 95% (p<0.05). Results: The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis in East Java fluctuated from 2015–2020. In 2020 and dur-ing the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of cases and morbidity rates increased. Statistic results confirm the presence of a significant correlation between the values of Incidence rate (IR) and Case Fatality rate (CFR) (p = 0.032), IR and Treatment Success Rate (TSR) (p = 0.020), and CFR and TSR (p = 0.002). Population density is not correlated with the number of new cases (p = 0.667). Treatment rates have increased to 51%; cure and treatment rates have decreased to 76% and 89%, respectively, and there was a 4% increase in mortality dur-ing COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has tremendously affected the treatment of pulmonary TB cases in East Java, Indone-sia by increasing the incidence rate and decreasing the fatality rate. The pandemic promotes fear in the com-munity to check their medical status and improve the quality of their health in East Java.