COVID-19 pandemic: Probing the dynamics in the North Himalayan state

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Coronavirus disease or COVID-19 emerged in December 2019 in China and thereafter spread to all regions of the world including India. In the Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh, India, the first case was identified in the month of March 2020. As the most populous district of the state of Himachal Pradesh, Kangra not only identified the first case in the state but also thereafter suffered disproportionately due to the virus causing severe health and economic disruption. The study was carried out to better understand the pattern and trends of COVID-19 pandemic in the district since its emergence, covering the first and the second wave to use the data to prepare the future course of action. Materials and Methods: A robust database comprising real-time data in a line list format was created. The observations covered all confirmed COVID-19 cases in the district from March 20, 2020, to June 30, 2021, in terms of disease progression and distribution in time, place, and person, and the possible risk factors for severe disease. Results: During the study period, 45,871 cases and 1030 deaths were reported in Kangra district, with a case fatality rate of 2.2%. Of the 12 districts of the state, Kangra reported the highest number of cases (22.6%) and deaths (29.7%). Ninety percent of all cases occurred during the second wave. While the first wave peaked in December 2020 with 2596 cases, the highest number of cases occurred in May 2021 when as many as 25,625 cases were reported. The test positivity rate of 15.2% during the second wave which was many times higher than that seen during the previous year. The case fatality rates during the first and second waves were 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. Conclusions: The study highlights an explosive surge in COVID-19 cases during the second wave, indicating the highly infectious nature of the virus. While absolute number of deaths was several times greater during the second wave, the case fatality rates did not differ greatly between the two waves.