A realistic age structured transmission model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in Thailand.

ABSTRACT

The influence of age structure in the susceptible class of the Susceptible-Infected Recovered (SIR) model used to describe the transmission of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) was studied. This was done by first dividing all of the population classes into cohorts and then writing a set of coupled SIR equations for each cohort. The consequences of assuming different behavior of the transmission rates on the age structure in the DHF incidence rates were determined. In order for the predicted incidence rates to be similar to the DHF incidence patterns observed in several provinces in Thailand during the DHF epidemic in 1998, the transmission rates should be age dependent.