Rainfall, abundance of Aedes aegypti and dengue infection in Selangor, Malaysia.

ABSTRACT

An epidemio-meteorotropic analytical study of Selangor, in the Southwest coast of Peninsular Malaysia, examines the monthly incidence of dengue for the period 1973-1982 to assess possible quantitative association with the monthly rainfall. The relationships between rainfall, abundance of A. aegypti and dengue infection during 1982 in Jinjang, a dengue-prone area in Selangor, were also examined. A quantitative association between rainfall and the number of dengue cases was found during the first wet period. The lag time between the onset of heavy rain and dengue outbreak was about two to three months. A 120% increase in the number of dengue cases was observed when the monthly rainfall was 300 mm or more. Positive associations were seen between the incidence of dengue and the Aedes house index and the Breteau index in Jinjang. The relationships between these three variables and rainfall suggest that the latter might have exerted its effect on dengue infection partly through the creation of more breeding sites for A. aegypti. Assessment of the importance of A. aegypti in the transmission of dengue in this locality was not possible because of the lack of adjustment for A. albopictus, the other known vector of dengue in the state, and for social and other environmental factors influencing infection rates. In spite of this and the interpretational problems common in aggregate studies, the present analyses have provided relatively strong statistical evidence of an association between rainfall and dengue outbreaks in Selangor, thereby indicating that it is a factor worthy of careful surveillance and monitoring.