Exploration and Construction of Dynamic Prediction Model in the Pre-Rheumatoid Arthritis State / 中医杂志

ABSTRACT

Pre-rheumatoid arthritis （Pre-RA） is the asymptomatic state of rheumatoid arthritis （RA）， and its progression showed complexity， dynamics and significant individual differences. The dynamic prediction model is valuable in identifying individual risks and taking timely preventive and control measures. It is believed that applying the dynamic prediction model to traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） clinical studies of Pre-RA is expected to predict the critical state of Pre-RA to RA， reveal the evolution of Pre-RA， reflect the external authenticity of the TCM clinical studies， and complement the clinical efficacy evaluation method. Accordingly， it is envisioned to construct a dynamic prediction model for Pre-RA progression based on TCM clinical trial data through the dynamic prediction model algorithm， and to apply long-term follow-up cohort data for external validation， thereby providing a basis for scientific warning and clinical decision-making on the evolution of Pre-RA.