Comparison of Disease Burden Factors of Thyroid Cancer Between China and the World From 1990 to 2019 / 中国医学科学院学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare the prevalence and disease burden of thyroid cancer and their trends between China and the globe from 1990 to 2019.Methods With the global disease burden data in 2019,Joinpoint was used to predict the trends of the disease burden of thyroid cancer in China and the globe from 1990 to 2019,and logarithmic linear model was used to test the predicted trends.The R language was used for predictive analysis and graphic plotting of the disease burden from 2020 to 2035.Results From 1990 to 2019,the standardized incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of thyroid cancer in China were lower than those in the globe.The standardized incidence rate in China and the globe showed an increasing trend(with the increases of 102.65% and 40.65%,respectively),while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend(with the decreases of 7.63% and 4.91%,respectively).Compared with those of the female population,the standardized incidence and mortality rates of the Chinese male population increased significantly from 1990 to 2019(the rates of change in the male population were 48.65% and 214.60%,respectively;and the rates of change in the female population were -39.01% and 60.44%,respectively).China's overall standardized years of life lost(YLL),years lived with disability(YLD),and disability-adjusted life years(DALY)rates during the 30-year period were lower than the global average.The Chinese and global populations showed the standardized YLL rate decreasing by 16.61% and 6.88% and the standardized DALY rate decreasing by 10.77% and 3.65%,respectively,while the rates of standardized YLD increased by 128.91% and 46.89%,respectively.The magnitude of DALY in China and the world was mainly influenced by YLL.The standardized incidence,mortality,and DALY rates of the Chinese male population were gradually approaching the global levels.From 1990 and 2019,thyroid cancer showed a higher mortality rate in the population with the age ≥ 75 years and a higher incidence rate in the population with the age <75 years.It is projected that from 2020 to 2035,the standardized incidence rates in China and the world will increase by 36.66% and 21.15%,respectively;the standardized mortality rates will decrease by 20.19% and 3.46%,respectively;and the standardized DALY rate is expected to decrease by 7.08% in China and increase by 4.35% in the world.Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,China's standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased and had a higher increase than the global level,and the standardized mortality rate decreased,with a slightly higher decrease than the global level.However,the increases in the standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of this disease in China's ≥75 years male population were severe.Although China's disease burden of thyroid cancer showed a decreasing trend in line with the global trend as a whole,the disease burden in the Chinese males was higher than that in the females.Specifically,the disease burden due to premature death was predominant,and the burden in specific populations requires policy attention.