Establishment and validation of nomogram prediction model of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE To explore the predictive factors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia in adult inpatients， and to establish and validate the nomogram prediction model. METHODS Data of adult inpatients treated with cefoperazone/sulbactam in Xi’an Central Hospital from Jun. 30th， 2021 to Jun. 30th， 2023 were retrospectively collected. The training set and internal validation set were randomly constructed in a 7∶3 ratio. Singler factor and multifactor Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the independent predictors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia. The nomogram was drawn by using “RMS” of R 4.0.3 software， and the predictive performance of the model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and C-index curve. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the calibration degree of the model. Using the same standard， the clinical data of hospitalized patients receiving cefoperazone/sulbactam in Xi’an First Hospital in the same period were collected for external validation of the nomogram prediction model. RESULTS A total of 1 045 patients in Xi’an Central Hospital were included in this study， among which 67 patients suffered from cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia， with an incidence of 6.41%. After the false positive patients were excluded， 473 patients were included finally， including 331 in the training set and 142 in theinternal validation set. Multifactor Logistic regression analysis showed that age [OR＝1.043， 95%CI （1.017， 1.070）]， estimated glomerular filtration rate （eGFR） [OR＝0.988，95%CI（0.977， 0.998）]， baseline platelet （PLT） [OR＝0.989， 95%CI（0.982， 0.996）]， nutritional risk [OR＝3.863， 95%CI（1.884， 7.921）] and cumulative defined daily doses （DDDs） [OR＝1.082， 95%CI（1.020， 1.147）] were independent predictors for cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia （P＜0.05）. The C-index values of the training set and the internal validation set were 0.824 [95%CI （0.759， 0.890）] and 0.828 [95%CI （0.749， 0.933）]， respectively. The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that χ 2 values were 0.441 （P＝0.802） and 1.804 （P＝0.406）. In the external validation set， the C-index value was 0.808 [95%CI （0.672， 0.945）]， the χ 2 value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.899 （P＝0.638）. CONCLUSIONS The independent predictors of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia include age， baseline PLT， eGFR， nutritional risk and cumulative DDDs. The model has good predictive efficacy and extrapolation ability， which can help clinic identify the potential risk of cefoperazone/sulbactam-induced thrombocytopenia quickly and accurately.