Establishing a prognostic prediction model for patients with septic shock based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and the negative fluid balance volumes / 中华危重病急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the relationship between the completion time of fluid resuscitation as well as negative fluid balance volumes and the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and to try to construct a prediction model based on the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes, and to verify the predictive efficacy of the model on the prognosis of patients with septic shock.Methods:Patients with septic shock admitted to Wuxi People's Hospital from April 2020 to April 2023 were selected. The general data (gender, age, body mass index, infection site), pathological indicators on admission, the difference of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, the completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volume were recorded. Multivariate Logistic analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of the prognosis of patients with septic shock, and a nomogram model was established. Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. The consistency index, calibration curve and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) were used to evaluate the accuracy and prediction efficiency of the model.Results:A total of 96 patients with septic shock were enrolled, 38 patients died and 58 patients survived at 28 days. Compared with the survival group, the difference of APACHEⅡscore, SOFA score, the proportion of fluid resuscitation completed within 1 to 3 hours, and the proportion of negative fluid balance volume -500 to -250 mL per day in the death group were lower, and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic analysis showed that the completion time of fluid resuscitation was a risk factor for the prognosis of patients with septic shock [odds ratio ( OR) = 26.285, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 9.984-76.902, P < 0.05]. The difference of APACHEⅡscore ( OR = 0.045, 95% CI was 0.015-0.131), SOFA score ( OR = 0.056, 95% CI was 0.019-0.165) between admission and 24 hours after fluid resuscitation, and negative fluid balance volume ( OR = 0.043, 95% CI was 0.015-0.127) were protective factors for the prognosis of patients with septic shock (all P < 0.05). The model validation results showed that the consistency index was 0.681 (95% CI was 0.596-0.924), indicating good discrimination. The calibration curve showed that the calibration curve fitted well with the ideal curve. The ROC curve showed that the sensitivity of the nomogram model for predicting the death of patients with septic shock was 83.7%, the specificity was 97.2%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.931 (95% CI was 0.846-0.985), indicating that the model had good prediction efficiency. Conclusion:The completion time of fluid resuscitation and negative fluid balance volumes are related to the prognosis of septic shock patients, and the alignment diagram model improve the identification of the risk of death in septic shock patients.