Colorectal cancer incidence and mortality trends in urban Shanghai,China from 1973 to 2017:a Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis / 肿瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective:To describe the epidemiological features and temporal trends of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai from 1973 to 2017. Methods:Data on colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai was obtained through Shanghai Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics System.Joinpoint analysis was used to describe the temporal trends and annual percent change(APC)and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the association between age,period and birth cohort and colorectal cancer. Results:A total of 105 847 cases and 60 447 deaths of colorectal cancer were diagnosed in urban Shanghai over the 45-year study period.Both the number of new cases and the number of deaths showed an increasing trend.In the same period,the age-standardized incidence of colorectal cancer in urban areas of Shanghai increased significantly from 14.1/100 000 in 1973 to 27.7/100 000 in 2017,while the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 8.2/100 000 to 10.7/100 000.The overall average annual age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 20.4/100 000 and 11.0/100 000,respectively.With the increase of age,the age-standardized morbidity and mortality of colorectal cancer showed an obvious upward trend.Taking 1993-1997 as reference,the risk of colorectal cancer in Shanghai reached the highest in 2013-2017,and the corresponding relative risk was 1.2(95％confidence interval:1.2-1.3),while the lowest was 0.9(95％confidence interval:0.8-1.0)during 1973-1977.Mortality risk,on the contrary,decreased with the increase of time.Before 1953-1957,the risk of colorectal cancer in urban Shanghai increased with the increase of birth cohort time,and then showed a downward trend.There was a corresponding decline in the risk of colorectal cancer death among people born after 1957. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in Shanghai showed an increasing trend from 1973 to 2017,but the prevalence trend of colorectal cancer is still different among different populations.