A nomogram model for predicting spontaneous rupture and bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma / 现代泌尿外科杂志

ABSTRACT

【Objective】 To establish a risk model for predicting spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma (RAML) in order to better assess and deal with the risk. 【Methods】 The information of 436 RAML patients diagnosed during Jan.2018 and Dec.2022 was retrospectively analyzed.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 216 patients were included and divided into the rupture bleeding group (n=35) and non-rupture bleeding group (n=181).The factors influencing spontaneous rupture bleeding were identified using univariate and multivariate analysis, and a nomogram was constructed accordingly with R language.The nomogram was evaluated using Calibration curve and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). 【Results】 It was found that clinical manifestations, tumor diameter, tumor convexity, tumor blood supply, and tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) were significantly correlated with rupture bleeding.The Calibration curve fitted well with the nomogram.The AUC was 0.956 (95%CI: 0.856-0.943), indicating that the nomogram had good statistical performance. 【Conclusion】 The model can effectively predict the risk of spontaneous rupture bleeding of renal angiomyolipoma.