Prognostic Model of Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine in Middle-aged and Elderly Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Complicated with Stable Angina Pectoris / 中国实验方剂学杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveThis study aims to explore risk factors for the development of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events （MACCEs） in middle-aged and elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus complicated with stable angina pectoris （T2DM-SAP） based on real-world clinical data in traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）， so as to develop a COX proportional risk prediction model and visualize the predicted results using a nomogram. MethodBased on the clinical scientific research information sharing system， the medical records of 586 T2DM-SAP patients （45-94 years old） were collected from January 2012 to December 2019， including age， gender， course of disease， major medical history， laboratory examination， tongue image， pulse image， TCM syndrome， and major treatment drugs. MACCE outcome indicators of patients were obtained by telephone follow-up and re-hospitalization records. The data was divided into a training set and a validation set according to 7∶3. In the training set， COX univariate analysis was used to determine the risk factors for MACCE in T2DM-SAP patients， and then variables were screened by forward-backward stepwise regression method， so as to establish a MACCE risk prediction model and construct a nomogram. The predictive efficacy of the model was reflected by the C-index， receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve， calibration map， and clinical decision curve. ResultThe history of cerebrovascular disease ［Hazard ratio （HR）=1.983， 95% confidence interval （CI，1.314-2.993）］， low-density lipoprotein （LDL-C/mmol·L-1）≥4.1［HR=2.683， 95%CI（1.461-4.925）］， dull red tongue ［HR=1.955， 95%CI（1.273-3.002）］， dull purple tongue ［HR=4.214， 95%CI（2.017-8.803）］， white thick coating ［HR=3.030， 95%CI（1.634-9.293）］， thin and weak pulse ［HR=2.233， 95%CI（1.283-3.888）］， and syndrome of wind-phlegm blocking collaterals ［HR=2.007， 95%CI（1.179-3.418）］ were found to be risk factors in middle-aged and elderly T2DM-SAP patients. Insulin ［HR=0.604， 95%CI（0.399-0.914）］， glycosidase inhibitor ［HR=0.627， 95%CI（0.409-0.962）］， and TCM treatment ［HR=0.328， 95%CI（0.214-0.503）］ were protective factors in middle-aged and elderly T2DM-SAP patients. The prediction model was constructed based on the above risk factors. The C-index of the model was 0.818 （95% CI 0.777 -0.859） in the training set and 0.814 （95% CI 0.773-0.855） in the validation set， and the change of C-index over time was plotted. The AUC of patients for 5， 10， 15 years in the training set was 0.71， 0.67， and 0.61. The AUC of patients for 5， 10， and 15 years in the validation set was 0.60， 0.68， and 0.63， respectively. The calibration map and clinical decision curves of 5， 10， 15 years were drawn in the training set and the validation set， respectively. The model was well calibrated and clinically effective. ConclusionThe history of cerebrovascular disease， LDL， dull red tongue， dull purple tongue， white thick coating， thin and weak pulse， and syndrome of wind-phlegm blocking collaterals are risk factors for MACCE in middle-aged and elderly T2DM-SAP patients， and insulin， glycosidase inhibitors， TCM treatment are protective factors for MACCE in middle-aged and elderly T2DM-SAP patients. A clinical prediction model is established accordingly. This model has good discrimination， calibration degree， and clinical effectiveness and provides a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of MACCE in middle-aged and elderly T2DM-SAP patients.