Long-Term Survival Rates and Prognostic Factors for a Hepatocellular Carcinoma after a Curative Hepatic Resection

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The prognosis for a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is very poor because of delayed diagnosis caused by the absence of specific clinical manifestations in the early stage, the limitation of the extent of resection, the high postoperative complication rate due to associated liver cirrhosis, and the high recurrence rate due to multifocal tumorigenesis. Among the various kinds of treatment modalities for HCC, surgical resection is still recognized as the first treatment method. However, it is true that surgical resection has many problems, such as a high operative risk and a high postoperative recurrence rate. Therefore, an evaluation of the factors associated with the overall survival rate and with the recurrence rate is very important for improving the results of operative therapy for HCC. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and the pathological results of 44 curative hepatic resections for HCC performed at Chonnam University Hospital from 1991 to 1997. We evaluated 19 clinical and pathological factors by univariate and multivariate analysis, and we calculated the survival rate by using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: The cumulative 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 81%, 66%, and 28%, respectively. In 25 of the 44 cases, recurrences developed, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence rates were 38%, 60%, and 65%, respectively. Factors with an independent effect on the overall survival rates were multiplicity of tumors, HBs Ag status, and Child classification. However, liver cirrhosis, ascites, prothrombin time, AFP level, and portal vein invasion were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The significant prognostic factors detected by multivariate analysis were multiplicity of tumors, HBs Ag status and Child classification. A preoperative evaluation for these factors should be done. If early diagnosis and multidisciplinary therapies are done through frequent postoperative follow-up surveys in these high risk groups, we can anticipate better long-term survival rates after a hepatectomy.