Seasonal Cycle and Relationship of Seasonal Rhino- and Influenza Virus Epidemics With Episodes of Asthma Exacerbation in Different Age Groups

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Seasonal variations in asthma exacerbation (AE) are associated with respiratory virus outbreaks and the return of children to school after vacation. This study aims to elucidate the period, phase, and amplitude of seasonal cycles of AE in 5 different age groups with regard to rhino- and influenza virus epidemics in Korea. METHODS: The number of daily emergency department (ED) visits for AE in all age groups of Korea and the nationwide weekly incidence of rhino- and influenza virus, were obtained for 2008-2012. Fourier regression was used to model rhythmicity, and the Cosinor method was used to determine the amplitude and phase of the cycles in each age group. The cross-correlation function (CCF) between AE and the rhino- and influenza virus epidemics was also calculated. RESULTS: There were 157,559 events of AE (0.62 events/1,000 individuals/year) during the study period. There were spring and fall peaks of AE in children and adults, but only 1 winter peak in the elderly. The amplitude of the AE peak in infants was higher in spring than in fall (9.16 vs 3.04, P<0.010), and the fall peak was approximately 1 month later in infants than in school children (October 11 vs November 13, P<0.010). The association between AE and rhinovirus was greatest in school children (rho=0.331), and the association between AE and influenza virus was greatest in those aged ≥60 years (rho=0.682). CONCLUSIONS: The rhythmicity, amplitude, and phase of the annual cycle of AE differed among different age groups. The patterns of AE were related to the annual rhino- and influenza virus epidemics.