Predictors of Progression and Prognosis of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation / 대한내과학회지

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Significant numbers of patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) proceed to persistent AF and have poor clinical outcomes despite the use of antiarrhythmic agents or direct-current cardioversion. We compared the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and HATCH scoring systems to predict AF progression and prognosis and identify the most useful scoring system in Korea. METHODS: A total of 559 consecutive patients with paroxysmal symptomatic AF were analyzed. The progression of AF and clinical outcomes were determined after at least 1 year of follow-up. Clinical outcomes were defined as the composite of death, hospitalization due to heart failure, and new-onset stroke. Each score was calculated, and its predictive accuracy for AF progression and prognosis was compared. RESULTS: A total of 147 patients with paroxysmal AF (26.3%) proceeded to persistent AF. The HATCH score (area under the curve [AUC], 0.601; p or = 6 55.6%, linear p < 0.001) than the CHADS2 (AUC, 0.720) and HATCH scoring systems (AUC, 0.723). CONCLUSIONS: Although the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and HATCH scoring systems were useful predictors of progression from paroxysmal to persistent AF, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was the most useful and accurate for the prediction of clinical outcomes.