Verification of Validity of MPM II for Neurological Patients in Intensive Care Units

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Mortality Provability Model (MPM) II is a model for predicting mortality probability of patients admitted to ICU. This study was done to test the validity of MPM II for critically ill neurological patients and to determine applicability of MPM II in predicting mortality of neurological ICU patients. METHODS: Data were collected from medical records of 187 neurological patients over 18 yr of age who were admitted to the ICU of C University Hospital during the period from January 2008 to May 2009. Collected data were analyzed through chi2 test, t-test, Mann-Whiteny test, goodness of fit test, and ROC curve. RESULTS: As to mortality according to patients' general and clinically related characteristics, mortality was statistically significantly different for ICU stay, hospital stay, APACHE III score, APACHE predicted death rate, GCS, endotracheal intubation, and central venous catheter. Results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were MPM II0 (chi2=0.02, p=.989), MPM II24 (chi2=0.99 p=.805), MPM II48 (chi2=0.91, p=.822), and MPM II72 (chi2=1.57, p=.457), and results of the discrimination test using the ROC curve were MPM II0, .726 (p<.001), MPM II24, .764 (p<.001), MPM II48, .762 (p<.001), and MPM II72, .809 (p<.001). CONCLUSION: MPM II was found to be a valid mortality prediction model for neurological ICU patients.