Prognostic Factors and Scoring Model for Survival in Metastatic Biliary Tract Cancer / Journal of the Korean Cancer Association, 대한암학회지
Cancer Research and Treatment
;
: 1127-1139, 2017.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-176907
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
Metastatic biliary tract cancer (mBTC) has a dismal prognosis. In this study, an independent dataset of patients with mBTC was used to implement and validate a routine clinico-laboratory parameter-based scoring model for risk group identification. MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
From September 2006 to February 2015, 482 patients with mBTC were assigned randomly (ratio, 73) into investigational (n=340) and validation datasets (n=142). The continuous variables were dichotomized using a normal range or the best cutoff values determined using the Contal and O'Quigley statistical methods. Following a Cox’s proportional hazard model, the scoring model was derived by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors identified by multivariate analysis.RESULTS:
The performance status (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 3-4), hypoalbuminemia (< 3.4 mg/dL), carcinoembryonic antigen (≥ 9 ng/mL), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≥ 3.0), and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (≥ 120 U/mL) were identified as independent prognosticators (Harrell’s C index, 0.682; integrated area under the curve, 0.653). Survival was clearly correlated with the risk groups (low, intermediate, and high, 14.0, 7.3, and 2.3 months, respectively; p < 0.001). The prognosis was also discriminative in the validation data set (median survival, 16.7, 7.5, and 1.9 months, respectively; p < 0.001). Chemotherapy did not offer any survival benefits for high-risk patients.CONCLUSION:
These proposed prognostic criteria for mBTC can facilitate accurate patient risk stratification and treatment-related decision-making.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Prognosis
/
Reference Values
/
Social Identification
/
Biliary Tract
/
Biliary Tract Neoplasms
/
Carcinoembryonic Antigen
/
Proportional Hazards Models
/
Multivariate Analysis
/
Hypoalbuminemia
/
Drug Therapy
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Cancer Research and Treatment
Year:
2017
Type:
Article
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