The Association Between the 10-Year Risk of the Korean Stroke Risk Prediction Model and the Carotid Intima-Media Thickness

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Both carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and global risk score of cardiovascular disease were independent risk factors of stroke and heart disease. We assessed the correlation between the 10-year risk of Korean Stroke Risk Prediction model (KSRP) and carotid intima-media thickness. Additionally, from a perspective of carotid IMT measurement following KSRP risk stratification, we analyzed the difference of carotid IMT and plaque according to the KSRP risk strata. METHODS: Subjects were 282 persons who visited one hospital for the screening of stroke. The 10-year risk was calculated automatically based on the equation of KSRP model. The maximal carotid IMT and the plaque were adopted as the study variables. The sensitivity and the positive predictive value of the KSRP risk categories were calculated. RESULTS: The correlation coefficient between the KSRP risk and the maximal carotid IMT was 0.29 (p<0.01). The mean (+/-standard deviation) of KSRP risk of the group with carotid plaque was statistically significantly higher, 5.3 (+/-4.1), than that of the group without plaque, 3.3 (+/-3.1) (p< or =0.01). The sensitivity of the risk stratum with more than 6% of KSRP risk for the plaque was 28.2%. The positive predictive value of the above cut-point was 48.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The 6% of KSRP risk may be considered as the beginning point of intermediate risk stratum to recommend the carotid ultrasonography. However, generalization needs further studies for various populations.