An assessment on the effectiveness of condom use in reducing the incidence of chlamydia through mathematical modelling / 中华流行病学杂志
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
;
(12): 290-293, 2007.
Article
in Chinese
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-232351
ABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To determine the relationship between the rate of condom use and incidence of Chlamydia amongst commercial sex worker, using a mathematical model.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Assuming that p(%) is the rate of condom use by female sex workers, and r(%) is the incidence of Chlamydia. If the use of condom increases by delta p, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by delta r. k is the relative rate of change. Then, the mathematical model established becomes dr/dp = -kr.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The solution of the differential equation is r (p) = r (P0) exp [-k (p - p0)]. Using the surveillance data gathered from 100% Condom Use Program in Wuhan City, the k value is calculated to be 4.36. If k indicates the contribution coefficient of reducing Chlamydia after condom use, when the rate of condom use increases by 16%, then the incidence of Chlamydia will decrease by 50%. The average difference between the actual incidence and the incidence calculated from the mathematical model is only 6.2%. This result demonstrates a good fit. The predicted result of using this mathematical model shows that at the time of lower levels of condom use, a small increment on the rate of condom use would considerably reduce the infection rate of Chlamydia.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>When k remains constant, this mathematical model reflects the qualitative relationship between the rate of condom use and the incidence of Chlamydia.</p>
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Main subject:
Sex Work
/
Chlamydia Infections
/
China
/
Population Surveillance
/
Epidemiology
/
Incidence
/
Condoms
/
Forecasting
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Incidence study
/
Prognostic study
/
Qualitative research
/
Screening study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
Chinese
Journal:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
Year:
2007
Type:
Article
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