The predictive values of EuroSCORE of early mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting patients / 中华外科杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To verify the predictive value of EuroSCORE of early mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients.</p><p><b>METHOD</b>From January 2005 to March 2007, 310 consecutive patients were operated with CABG. Detailed data for the EuroSCORE risk factor were collected and all patients were scored according to the EuroSCORE additive model, retrospectively or prospectively. Expected or predicted mortality was calculated for individual patients using the EuroSCORE algorithms, arranged sequentially in order of predicted score. The population was divided into three clinically relevant risk categories according to the range of predicted mortality rate. Expected mortality was compared to observed or actual mortality for each risk category. Mortality was defined as death from any cause within 30 days of operation or within the same hospital admission.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Preoperative overall patients low-risk group was 25.2% (78/310), middle-risk group was 48.4% (150/310), high-risk group was 26.4% (82/310). In the EuroSCORE model, predicted mortality was 1.4% for low-risk group, 2.7% for middle-risk group, 7.4% for high-risk group, and 3.6% for overall patients. Actual mortality was 0, 1.3% and 3.7% respectively, overall early mortality was 1.6%. Area under the ROC curve was 0.78.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The EuroSCORE yield good predictive value for hospital mortality of patients undergoing CABG, especially in off-pump CABG.</p>