Analysis on influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To understand the influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density in natural condition and provide scientific evidence for the control of the spread of schistosomiasis and Oncomelania.Methods Based on the Oncomelania survey data in spring and ground meteorological observation data of Qianjiang from 1990 to 2014, the first-order autoregressive analysis method was used for trend fitting and disassemble, and the correlation between the change rate of Oncomelania density and various meteorological factors in different periods were analyzed.Results The greatest influence of meteorological factors on Oncomelania density was temperature,followed by precipitation.The average minimum temperature in January and from December to February had predominant influence on Oncomelania density and frame occurrence rate of living Oncomelania (FORLO) respectively.The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature in January by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of Oncomelania density by 5.080％-6.710％;The rise (fall) of average minimum temperature from December to February by 1 ℃ would lead to the increase (decrease) of FORLO by 15.521％-15.928％.The period with the biggest influence of precipitation on Oncomelania density was from November to April, as the rainfall declined ＞20％, drought might occur, which would cause the reduction of Oncomelania density.Sunshine from September to November had some correlations with the change of Oncomelania density and FORLO.Statistical regression models for the change of Oncomelania density, FORLO and meteorological factors based on correlation analysis were established respectively.Conclusion Weed removal in Oncomelania areas before December is beneficial to reduce the surface temperature and soil moisture content, which would result in Oncomelania density reduction in some extent.It' s notable that the winter temperature is in rise in Hubei province along with global climate change, causing the Oncomelania density to increase, to which more attention should be paid.