Study on the spatial distribution and related risks of Rhombomys opimus, based on the ecological niche modeling in Junggar Basin, Xinjiang / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>In order to understand the distribution of the host animals in Junggar Basin, this study intended to map the spatial distribution and identifying the risk of Rhombomys opimus in the framework of ecological niche theory based on the "3S" technology.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Data on Rhombomys opimus was obtained through a series of field surveys. Environmental variables were achieved through data from Remote Sensing. Maxent modeling was built to map the potential distribution of Rhombomys opimus, with its risks identified.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The prediction model showed ideal accuracy, with the AUC value as 0.968. Probability of Maximum Youden Index was defined as the threshold being used. The sensitivity and specificity showed as 91.4% and 63.3%, respectively. The accuracy was 73.8%, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.495. The positive predictive value was 59.7%. The negative predictive value was 92.6%. The predicted high risk area was 37 304 km2, with 6.2% in the whole area, distributed in 18 counties, including Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Urumqi, Karamay and so on. The number of people under high risk would come about 120 000, scattering in the areas of 261 square kilometers.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>It was feasible to predict the potential distribution of Rhombomys opimus based on the ecological niche theory as well as environmental variables derived from data through remote sensing. More specific high-risk areas could be identified under this technique so as to guide the monitoring programs.</p>