The relationship between secular trend of road traffic injuries and gross domestic product per capita in China / 中华预防医学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the relationship between secular trend of road traffic injuries (RTI) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Statistical description was used in the data about cases, injuries, deaths, mileage mortality and 10 million population mortality from 1970 to 2009. Cluster analysis was used to classify the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China. Ecological study was used to explore the relationship between RTI and GDP per capita.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>There were three stages of RTI in China. It grew rapidly in 1970 - 2002 (from 1.16 to 8.52 per 10 million population), kept steady in 2003 - 2004 (from 8.08 to 8.24 per 10 million population), and decreased obviously in 2005 - 2009 (from 7.55 to 5.08 per 10 million population). The ecological study showed that the population mortality of RTI rose along with the GDP per capita's growth. When the GDP per capita reached to 14 053 yuan (equivalent to 1716 US dollar, in 2005), the mortality began to decrease obviously, the average annual decreasing rate was 10.16%(8.14% - 10.52%)in the following five years. According to the GDP per capita during the period of 1999 - 2009, the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China were divided into three categories of region. The curves of population mortality of RTI and GDP per capita in different category possessed the same ecological trend. That was the population mortality early rose and then fell along with the GDP per capita's growth. All of they started to decrease obviously in 2005. The GDP per capita among three categories of region was different (45 281 yuan, 22 243 yuan and 10 475 yuan respectively) in the same period.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>In the early stage of economic development, the mortality of RTI increased along with the economic development. When the economic development reached a certain level, the mortality decreased along with the GDP per capita's growth.</p>