Analysis of prognostic factors of and to establish a predictive model for patients with chronic severe hepatitis / 中华肝脏病杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To analyze prognostic factors of and to develop a prognostic model for patients with chronic severe hepatitis (CSH).</p><p><b>METHODS</b>From December 1998 to October 2003, 385 in-patients being treated for chronic severe hepatitis were evaluated. The main clinical and laboratory variables were analyzed as predictive factors of survival with Cox univariate and multivariate regression models.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The median survival time of this study group was 47 days. The survival rates at 1, 3, 6 months, 1-year, and 3 years were 66.2%, 32.9%, 26.9%, 22.9% and 17.7% respectively. Four prognostic factors were extracted using Cox's proportional hazard model; the prognostic index (PI) was calculated using the following formula consisting of these factors. PI = 0.016loge + 1.148 hepatic encephalopathy + 0.294loge (bilirubin micromol/L) - 0.826loge (prothrombin time activity). The model accurately predicted 3 months survival in an independent series of 84 patients with chronic severe hepatitis.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The developed model is valuable in prognostic evaluation of chronic severe hepatitis and it may be useful to guide clinicians in selecting treatment methods for CSH.</p>