Study on the spread of influenza A (H1N1) under community based simulation model / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

A simulation experiment was carried out by applying the simulation model to spread of influenza A (H1N1) in communities with different population density. Population at the community-level was divided into susceptible, infected and recovered ones, according to the susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model, and the age structure of the population was set on the basis of data from the Fifth Population Census. Contact and moving of the individuals were based on the Network Random Contact Model and the mortality and infection mode were established in line with the influenza A (H 1N 1) medical description. The results of an example analysis showed that the infection rate was closely related to the density of the community-based population while the rate on early infection grew rapidly. Influenza A (H1N1) seemed more likely to break out in the community with population density of over 50/hm2. Comparative tests showed that vaccination could effectively restrain the spread of influenza A (H1N1) at the community level. Conclusion Population density,and the coverage of influenza vaccination were risk factors for influenza A (H1N1) epidemics.Results of the experiment showed of value, for prevention and vaccination on this topic.