Assessment of current hospital capacity in Beijing in responding to potential influenza pandemic: an application on Flu Surge model / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>INTRODUCTION</b>Based on the estimate results of the capacity and preparedness of Beijing hospitals to respond to pandemic influenza, using flu surge model to evaluate its applicable hypothesis and to provide government with sentient strategy in planning pandemic influenza. Through collection of medical resources information, we calculated the possible impaction on hospitals by Flu Surge model and explored the applicable hypothesis in model operation through a questionnaire, direct observation and group discussion in 3 hospitals in Beijing. Based on flu surge model estimation during a 6-week epidemic from a pandemic virus with 35% attack rate, Beijing would have had an estimation of 5 383 000 influenza illnesses, 2 691 500 influenza outpatients, 76 450 influenza hospitalizations and 14 508 excess deaths. For a 6-week period with 35% attack rate, there would be a peak demand for 8% of beds, 210% of ICU beds, and 128% of ventilators estimated. Outpatients in different level hospital were quite disproportionated with 1742/ hospital/day, 650/hospital/day, and 139/hospital/day respectively. The sampled health workers had a mastery of 63.4% of the total knowledge and skills of diagnosing and treating of influenza, 73.5% of them washed their hands and 63.5% used PPE correctly. The total beds capacity, medical beds capacity and respiratory medical beds capacity would increase 8%, 35% and 128% respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The estimation results could be referenced when planning the pandemic strategy, but the results should be treated objectively when considering the hypothesis and practical situation in this model being used.</p>