Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of breast cancer in China, 2008 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China,in 2008.Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China (2004-2005) were used to estimate the incidence,mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China in 2008.Mathematical models were used to predict the breast cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years.Results In 2008,the incidence of breast cancer was 169 452 (14.2％) with the incidence rate of 21.6/100 000,ranking the second among all the cancers.Deaths due to breast cancer was 44 908 (6.1％) with mortality as 5.7/100 000,which ranked the sixth among all the cancers.The 5-year prevalence rate of breast cancer in China was 120.8/100 000,taking up the proportion as 26.1％,ranking the first among all the cancers.Breast cancer was seen more frequently among people aged between 40 to 70.Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years.Conclusion Breast cancer was the second cause of incidence rates among all the cancers in China,with both increasing incidence and mortality.Population at most risk for breast cancer were those aged 40 to 70,who deserved special programs for prevention and control.