Current supply and future workforce projections of anesthesiologists for safe anesthetic care of the Korean population

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recently, current or potential shortage and regional imbalance of anesthesiologists have become controversial issues due to political reasons. Thus, we examined the occurrence of current shortage of anesthesiologists in non-capital areas and forecasted the supply of anesthesiologists in the target period between 2020 and 2025. METHODS: In November 2015, membership data including the type of anesthesia service, age, and regional distribution of the Korean Society of Anesthesiologists (accounting for 73.7% of all anesthesiologists) was renewed. Excepting unidentified members (n = 231), previous data from the 2007 survey were used for analysis. Future workforce projections were determined by adding the number of new anesthesiologists minus the predicted number of anesthesiologists who will retire or die in the targeted period. RESULTS: In 2015, the cumulative number of anesthesiologists was 4,826. The available anesthesiologists in our country numbered 4,515. Of these, 2,675 anesthesiologists (59.2%) have provided surgical anesthesia services with centralization of the capital region (58.1%). The number of the available anesthesiologists in our country were expected to be 4,585 and 5,478 in 2020 and 2025, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The regional distribution of anesthesia services reported by the Health Insurance Report indicated a current centralization of anesthesiologists in the capital region, as a result of anesthesia demand concentration in this area. The age composition of current anesthesiologists as well as the numeric trends of trainees acquiring professional license indicated a stable supply of anesthesiologists over the next 10 years.